deal architect

The "fog" of enterprise software

So many data points cannot be wrong, can they? Larry Ellison talks about SAP's customers moving away during the Oracle earnings call. IFS runs a billboard ad suggesting the same. I get whispers from several other competitors suggesting SAP is in trouble. I see countless retweets of an article which says the new SAP leadership faces big challenges in 2020. I hear many analysts talk about the activist investor, Elliott. So many of the executives I had in my book SAP Nation 3.0 released just a few months ago are no longer there.

Except that when I talk to SAP customers I hear concerns - but very different ones. Those around integration across SAP products. Those around SI and other costs when they consider migrating to S/4HANA. How they have a tough time developing an ROI for S/4. How few are considering the public cloud route to S/4. But I don't hear of them migrating to a different vendor. Five years ago, in volume 1 of SAP Nation, I showcased customers who were ring fencing SAP with other solutions, moving to two -tier ERP, to third party maintenance. When I wrote volume 3 that trend had slowed down and if anything, SAP had reversed some of those defections.

What to believe?

I watch Dreamforce and have to wonder if I am watching a stream of the Democratic National Convention. So many caucuses talking about ethnic, ethical and equality issues. Protests in and around Moscone. I read CEO Marc Benioff's new book, Trailblazer and I see he invokes Steve Jobs and the launch of Apple's App Store. He forgets to mention his AppExchange was born before and still does not have even 10%  of the App Store revenue. I am glad I also got to see sessions which go into Salesforce's efforts in various verticals. To me, they should have been Day 1, center stage.

What to believe where the company's priorities are?

I listen to Microsoft pitches on their retail vertical and parse Satya Nadella's keynote at NRF, the annual retail show. Lots of good capabilities, particularly in the CRM and infrastructure area but I notice there is very little on supply chain and logistics. The hottest topics in retail these days, many driven by Amazon, are around last mile coverage, robotic warehouses and reverse logistics.

What to believe about the company's vertical strategy?

In the last few months I have written blog posts detailing most of these points. But those are individual notes in an orchestra. In 2007, I wrote a post which talked about the "thousand points of influence". Now, there are x times more - many often rumor and conjecture based. It forces you to keep going back to your True North. To me, my "fog lights" are conversations with customers and distilling their technology strategies and investment trajectories. Then use that as a guide to measure vendors on their functionality, their architecture, their economics and their ecosystems. Because customers make really long term decisions when it comes to their enterprise software.    

Interestingly, in the auto world, fog lights are gradually disappearing as a standard feature. In a world of LIDAR and automatic braking, that trend will continue. In the enterprise software world we need to develop similar capabilities to navigate our fog. Till we do, drive carefully, and pray that others on the road also behave responsibly.

Innovation Season

My innovation blog, New Florence will celebrate its 15th birthday this March. It will have clocked over 6,500 posts. I recently looked at various patterns on that blog. Innovation stories and news ebb and flow from different industries and geographies. One particular search tried to identify the most active phase of the year I get to curate from. I would have sworn it would have been the enterprise conference season when I attend a number of events.

I was wrong - it was actually a "quarter" from the end of November through early March. Here's some of what shows up on a regular basis, year after year.

Holiday festivities

Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's and the Chinese New Year always allow opportunities to highlight spectacular decorations, fireworks and meals. Black Friday, holiday deliveries and returns allow for showcasing advances in ecommerce, same day delivery and reverse logistics.

Winter travel

The growing global passenger traffic and weather challenges always allow for showcasing how airports, airlines, traffic control and meteorologists are perfecting their craft.

Industry events

Plenty of innovation is showcased at CES, NRF (Retail) and HIMSS (Healthcare) events. In the past, the Detroit Auto Show in January would also provide fodder.

Sporting/entertainment events

The NFL SuperBowl commercials lineup usually brings out the best from Madison Avenue. The game itself allows for reviewing stadium, on-field and broadcasting technologies. Daytona 500 showcases auto and broadcast innovations. The Oscars usually allow for a review of how STEM is helping Hollywood innovate.  Fashion weeks in Paris, Milan and elsewhere, the Westminster Kennel Dog show in New York often provide other ideas. Every four years, the Winter Olympics provide inspiration.

End of year

There are usually plenty of "best of year" and "forecast for next year" stories to select from.

Other inspirations

The US President's State of the Union address, Bill and Melinda Gates annual foundation letter, Warren Buffett's annual Berkshire letter, and the WEF annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland usually have nuggets of progress in healthcare, government and elsewhere.

It's not to say the rest of the year does not provide innovation inspiration - I average a post a day, come rain or shine, but for this "quarter" from late November through early March, I could easily have 4-5 posts a day.

I will share thoughts on other patterns I noticed across the 6,500 posts over the course of the next few months.

Ad Maiora Natus Sum: We are born to aim for greater things

Happy New Year! Welcome back! Hope you had a relaxing break. I had plenty of time to reflect on the last decade. And to introspect on what we should do in the coming decade. Let me share with readers some of my reflection, starting with the title of this post.

I am not Catholic, but did study at a school managed by the Salesians of Don Bosco. My wife was born Catholic, but in our travels she seeks out Buddhist and Hindu temples.  She does like to go to cathedrals which offer masses in Latin, which remind her of her childhood in Ireland. As a result, I am exposed to more Latin words than you would think. Recently, I saw the expression Ad Maiora Natus Sum - and I recognized that as the motto of my school. And I had a bit of a flashback. Without consciously recognizing it, it hit me that the motto has guided most of my life.  I have gravitated towards topics of innovation, Six Sigma, progress. That is a common theme in most of my books. 6,500 posts on New Florence reflect that. My advice to clients always pushes for continuous improvement using technology.   

So, in all honesty, I am disappointed at the missed opportunities in the last decade in the two big markets I write and advise about. Over a million on-prem customers have not moved to the cloud, even when their on-prem systems have become compliance and security risks and recruiting liabilities. And even staying on-prem, they could be running them much more efficiently and have not explored third party maintenance, cloud infrastructure, multi-tenancy in application management etc.  Cloud functionality barely covers 20% of the grid of applications by geography and industry. SIs and outsourcers lost the data center market, they missed out on contract manufacturing, they have barely automated their own labor intensive operations - see my notes on enterprise software and outsourcing for more details. 

I had to honestly ask - how much blame do analysts deserve for not screaming louder about these missed opportunities? My initial introspection was not tough enough. In fact, I felt proud our research consistently surfaced opportunities years ahead of others. I have written about the contract manufacturing opportunities, new data center architectures, about automation in every sector in several books. I have been screaming about vertical opportunities for so long that my colleagues crack jokes about it. What more could I have done?

I heard someone recently say we have moved to "slash titles" and "portfolio jobs". Deal Architect has been doing that for 15+ years - we have an adviser/analyst/author model. We have been publishing plenty but perhaps we have not been advising enough about how to take advantage of them.

That was one aha from my introspection. Increase the advisory component of our offerings. Help vendors increase their TAM, their competitive intelligence, help customers modernize, get more value from their technology investment.

Do vendors need more advice?  I don't see it as traditional advice, more guidance about white spaces and efficiencies, but many are afraid to seek advice from analysts. Some see that as a sign of weakness. Others are not prepared to evolve business models. Most CRM vendors missed out on the massive digital advertising market that Google, Facebook, now Amazon have grown to dominate. It did not align with their software licensing models.  Many others have the "help me sell what I have" mindset. When I was a young PwC consultant, a partner told me "a good salesperson sells what is in his bag, not keeps asking for more product". I was not sure about that but was too young to argue. Now I know he was wrong. A good salesperson listens to the market and goes back to R&D/product group and asks for changes and additions.

Will customers accept advice? Honestly, many are happy with traditional services we provide, and have too many conflicting priorities to consider new ones. Others prefer to buy advisory services only from larger "brand name" firms. Still others want it packaged in bite size units.

I have told a few colleagues I started my career when building technology was far more common than buying it. Back then, it was not much fun championing the Buy side of the Buy v Build equation. It has been a lot of fun since. I am afraid, however, I may end my career with the market custom building, insourcing much more.

Hey, pendulums swing all the time and I have no intention of retiring any time soon, but I feel loyal to the Buy side and want to keep helping that "team"

We will keep doing and publishing plenty of research which helps us unearth market opportunities early. But we will also add more advisory services - that will mean new partnerships, new packages of services. I expect I will be reaching out to many of you for input.

Happy New Decade! Let's all aim for Ad Maiora.

2020s - Embracing Complexity in Enterprise Tech

I wrote couple of weeks ago about missed opportunities in the 2010s in enterprise software and in outsourcing. That backlog did not disappear - it has created even more opportunity for this decade. However, as I caught up on my reading, podcast listening and keynote watching over the holiday break, I have become even more convinced that enterprise vendors and customers will need to make sure the 2020s are very different. In this post, I will explain how and why. Next week, I will discuss how we at Deal Architect hope to help the industry aim much higher.

A) Inspiration from FritoLay/PepsiCo

I had a chance to listen to Michael Lindsey, SVP, Chief Transformation Officer, and Strategy Officer at FritoLay present at Dreamforce. His portion starts around 29:00 in this video 

Here are some of his comments on how they have "embraced complexity" at Frito and its parent, PepsiCo

"Consumer expectations are just exploding in complexity....it used to be the case that we'd have five or six of our classic billion-dollar brands and that would be 90%-ish of the consumption...Lays, Ruffles, Cheetos, Fritos, Doritos, the ones that everybody knows and loves and it'd be in a relatively small number of flavors. Used to be the classic orange Cheetos. But now, we have flaming hot. Organic Cheetos. White cheddar Cheetos. White cheddar puff Cheetos. White cheddar crunchy Cheetos.

And now we have banana chips...apple chips... seaweed flavored snacks. The world is exploding around us in terms of what consumers want as we get more cross-cultural pollination. That variety introduces just an immense amount of complexity into our system.

One of the things that's unique about FritoLay besides the breadth of our portfolio is how big an end-to-end system we run. We have more trucks and a larger fleet than UPS, than FedEx, and the reason we do that is because we can control the entire process at FritoLay from the seed that's used for the potato to where it's manufactured to the distribution systems to the trucks that deliver to the store. When you go into one of our favorite customers on a Saturday and you see somebody working the shelf, that's a Frito Lay employee who is making that shelf look perfect for us.

Retail is absolutely still our dominant channel. But even within retail our large customers have become omnichannel. It's not that the store will go away, but the way that the customers, their shoppers interact with the store is shifting over time as well where people are pursuing new models, whether it's click and collect models, whether it's order and have it delivered from the store to their home. We have to be able to both supply that from a product supply standpoint to keep it always in stock, always on the shelf with perfect availability. We have to continue to invest and help our retailer customers understand their shoppers and their consumers in-depth in a way that perhaps they can't within our specific category.

Across the world about a billion times per day somebody is eating or drinking one of PepsiCo products. We have an agricultural system that touches 60 countries across the world, so we recognize that we're a big part of the overall food and beverage ecosystem and that we have to do our part to make sure that we can drive sustainability on water, on agriculture, on plastics, etc.

Our new CEO and chairman, Ramon Laguarta, developed this mantra on winning with purpose, which is that we're going to win, but we're going to embed purpose in everything we do all the way down to the way that brand is executed on the shelf to make sure that the packaging, the way that we advertise, the way that we market, the way that we develop our products has purpose and sustainability threaded throughout."

And then was to me his money quote that enterprise vendors need to factor. Too many of them defined their customer needs, their TAM and competitive landscape too narrowly in the last decade:

"(It's our) fundamental cultural idea to embrace complexity. That's one of the challenges, one of the mantras that we've been using internally because, as the world gets more complex, it's natural to then try to work your way through and manage through the complexity, trim out the long tail of SKUs. But if you want to capture every last moment of growth, every potential consumer or shopper out there, you have to just embrace that complexity; accept that the world is going to have a lot more products, a lot more channels, and you have to find a way to use technology and data to manage that and manage that effectively to delight your consumers and your shoppers."

In contrast, I next read a BusinessWeek article about Larry Ellison and Oracle and I was dismayed how "un-complex" they made Oracle applications sound.  "Ellison said doing well in the database market and with financial applications is enough for him. “If we’re successful in those two markets, it should be enough to make a living,” he said during a September call with analysts." I went back and checked the call transcript and Larry actually said "ERP back-office in the cloud, Autonomous Database in the cloud, we're successful in those two markets, should be enough to make a living." So, his scope was a bit more expansive but my reaction was "The Number 2 apps vendor in the world (at the start of 2010 but no longer so at the end of 2020 as it missed out on digital advertising, IoT, various verticals) is content just selling back office apps?"

Not just picking on Oracle. Every vendor played "small ball" in the last decade.

B) Inspiration from Apple

I was re-reading Marc Benioff's new book, 'Trailblazer" (I have a longer review here). He mentions how he played a role in the launch of Apple's AppStore 

"For me, it was exciting and humbling. And Steve (Jobs) had unwittingly given me an incredible opportunity to repay him for the prescient advice he’d given me five years earlier. After the presentation, I pulled him aside and told him we owned the domain and trademark for “App Store” and that we would be happy and honored to sign over the rights to him for free. By 2019, (Salesforce's platform) AppExchange had more than five thousand apps available for purchase, ranging from sales engagement and project management tools to collaboration aids. And nearly 90 percent of Salesforce customers were using them."

Marc rightly deserves credit but he neglects to benchmark his store's revenues against that of Apple's. His store has been in existence longer and by my estimate generated less than $3 billion in revenue in 2019 compared to nearly $40 billion at the Apple store. That means significantly higher royalties for store partners and much more choice for customers. Still, Salesforce has done much better than SAP's many stores - around mobile, HANA, cloud platform etc - and those of other enterprise vendors. The industry needs to embrace complexity to make their platforms and partner programs much more attractive to ISVs.

C) Inspiration from Tesla

While there is a big opportunity to grow bigger ISV communities, in reverse there is a significant opportunity to shrink the SI/outsourcing burden around enterprise apps.

I was fascinated by the visceral, loud reaction to Elon Musk's Tesla Cybertruck concept. As this designer, however, points out "Despite the radical aesthetics, the Tesla Cybertruck is a shining example of function-over-form, and it is perfectly designed."

Can you imagine if SAP similarly looked at function-over-form in its services ecosystem as it tries to migrate its customers from ECC to S/4HANA?

It could make consultant certification much more vigorous, it could push for more automation, shared services and virtual delivery in its services partner. Even better if its service partners did things differently this time. They have implemented millions of ERP projects in the last couple of decades. They have enough data to train machines to automate configurations, to develop conversion and testing routines, to develop training routines differently. They can use multi-tenancy concepts. As an industry we can and should make these projects predictable and much more affordable. Yes doing so will bring complexity, but we need to embrace that complexity.

D) Inspiration from Andreessen Horowitz

I was watching this video from Frank Chen, partner at Andreessen Horowitz look ahead to what life may look like in 2030 - he uses his daughter for scenarios around diet, exercise, virtual work etc. 

Frank may be sticking his neck out projecting a decade ahead but it shows how his fund is thinking.

I was hoping Infor's new management would have similarly showcased scenarios around what the retail store might look like in 2030, or even 2025. Or the hospital emergency room. Or the shop floor. Or last mile delivery. And how they are helping make those scenarios a reality. Verticalization is Infor's path to differentiation - has been for a decade. Of course, it would be much more complex, but in a recent presentation, they barely touched on what it is planning to innovate around industry applications.  

Not just picking on Infor, most vendors have invested in brilliant technical architects but missed out on process visionaries who would have allowed them to think very differently like, for example, Amazon has with its "chaotic storage" warehouses. 

I could go on - so many other opportunities for enterprise tech vendors in terms of new function points, globalization, multi-cloud infrastructure, continuous improvement in delivery and other areas.

It's not just vendors - enterprise customers have to embrace complexity as well. Many are content to stick with legacy apps which are compliance and security risks, and increasingly recruiting liabilities and unlikely to support machine learning and other innovations. They also keep waiting for the elusive single-source, wall to wall solution from a single vendor when they can already re-imagine every business process by integrating a set of modern tools.

And so do us enterprise analysts. Next week, I will describe how we hope to help buyers and vendors do things very differently this decade. To help them become more comfortable embracing complexity, we ourselves have to become so comfortable ourselves. 

A disappointing start to Dreamforce

I wrote last week I am excited about Salesforce's verticals and that I planned to watch many of the industry sessions scheduled at Dreamforce today. However, last year's CEO Marc Benioff's keynote did a really nice job showcasing customer case studies - I shared this post with several other vendors asking them to use as a guide for their own customer stories. So, I was hoping for a redux and set aside a couple of hours to listen to this year's opening keynote - here is a replay.

Marc and his team did profile a couple of customers - State Farm Insurance and Louis Vuitton. However, the focus was more product-centric and rushed. Just did not have, at least for me,  the same impact last year's format did.

Worse, there was a protest which interrupted the session. I have been reading Marc's new book, Trailblazer, and while I admire the positions he has taken on LGBTQ issues, gender pay equality and homelessness among others I have been wondering if that just attracts more causes which clamor for his and the company's attention. I got my answer during his keynote. CNBC reports

"A man standing near the stage started reading from a piece of paper, criticizing Salesforce’s contract with U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

 “Okay, we’re going to let you talk for 30 seconds,” Benioff said to the man. “But, however, at the end of the 30 seconds, you have to agree that you’re going to leave. Do you agree?”"

A giant digital timer on the screen then began ticking down. “We’re going to put the clock up. You have 28 seconds left,” Benioff said."

"Minutes later, another protester started shouting, but the comments were inaudible.

“We’ve heard from your group, and we will [be] happy to have a further conversation with you,” Benioff said. “We gave you your time. We will continue to give you other opportunities to speak. Thank you very much.”

I thought Marc handled the protesters very well and even scored points when he said he supported free speech. But with the timer and a security lady in the picture you got the distinct sense that Salesforce was prepared for this and even bigger protests outside Moscone. Honestly, I was filled with dread - what next?

I had hoped Benioff would do his fireside chat with Tim Cook of Apple as part of the keynote. It was actually later in the day when I had a conflict. Instead, the stream had a fireside chat with Anand Giridharadas, Editor-at-Large for TIME. His focus was what he calls "Voluntary Virtue" - the faux concern he thinks the wealthy show in solving societal issues like inequality. He talked about his book Winners Take All: The Elite Charade of Changing the World. He was particularly tough on Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorganChase. (btw I am a Chase customer and personally think their customer service sucks but I thought Anand was unfair to Jamie). More than anything as an editor of a leading magazine I wish he had been balanced. Instead he focused on the two ends of the wealth bell curve and ignored our still-substantial middle class. I tweeted him after the session

By now, I was distracted with calls and had the Dreamforce feed in background. I did see bits of pieces of two sessions which both focused on AI and ethical issues. 

I am approaching the decade milestone of The New Polymath. In that book, I had laid out many thorny technology-led ethical issues. I had interviewed lawyers, academics and analysts on these issues including Dr. Herman Tavani, professor of computer ethics at Rivier College. I had observed

"Clearly, this walking encyclopedia on cyberethics is not being leveraged enough by technology practitioners and future business leaders. (Professor James Moor at Dartmouth also confirmed he is not often consulted by technology vendors.)

In the last few years I have seen it flip. We are proactively worrying about potential ethical issues around AI and autonomous cars when they are years from becoming mainstream. As one panelist observed " AI is like teenage sex: everyone says they’re doing it, but no one actually knows what it is." Exactly, but we still seem to spend hours fretting about potentially biased algorithms, not about the productivity and payback from these new technologies. In contrast, long festering ethical issues I had laid out in my book are still being ignored.  

Look, Dreamforce has always been a "different' conference. It is a Tony Robbins type rah -rah, scream your throat hoarse event. You run into will.i.am and Deepak Chopra and Colin Powell and Richard Branson and who knows who else here.

But at the end of the day, I shuddered that a certain line may have been crossed at Dreamforce. I go out of my way to avoid political media, and in this sanctuary of a tech and innovation event, I should feel sheltered from that.    

I just hope today's vertical sessions focus much more on innovative customers and products. Yes, feel free to call me boring.  

I will see Josh's five and raise him ten!

Josh Greenbaum has a fascinating post - how Microsoft and SAP plan to take over the enterprise software market. There is much in there I agree with. All the recent executive changes - Jen, Christian, Bill, Bob - are exciting for the industry. Microsoft's infrastructure cloud is on a roll - the SAP "Embrace" and the DoD JEDI contract only add to the momentum. But I see much bigger changes in the enterprise software market beyond what SAP and Microsoft will touch.

To me, Google, Facebook, Amazon and agencies like Accenture with their share of digital advertising and CMO access will continue to significantly influence and morph the CRM space

The customer service segment will be significantly reshaped as IoT, satellite, drone based concepts mature. I expect industrial asset makers like Siemens and Caterpillar and logistics providers like UPS and Amazon to also be major players.

Contract manufacturers like Foxconn and Flex and boutique design firms will have more than their fair share of influence in the product engineering and manufacturing areas.

Amazon, Alibaba and other big commerce sites will continue to commoditize fulfillment functionality for countless SMEs and set a bar for broader supply chain and logistics functionality.

Robotics and other automation vendors will reshape many a business process. Similarly, Google will help many an enterprises rethink processes with machine learning.

A whole bunch of customers are themselves reshaping their industry specific operational systems with custom development and specialist startups - they are tired of waiting for modernized vertical packaged software.

Major economies like China, Japan, Brazil and others have seen so far only modest traction with modern enterprise applications. I have a feeling regional players will have a bigger role in the next few years.  

Josh has a lot of ink about activist investors. To me, they play a vital role in shaking up status quo, but smart as they are, I dont see them as significantly reshaping technology markets. In later, more mature markets, private equity investors have more influence in consolidations and other seismic changes. But we are not at the stage in the current iteration of enterprise software.

Net-net to me : SAP and Microsoft will continue to do well in traditional transactional areas. But the definition of the "enterprise" continues to rapidly expand, and I see a very fragmented market for the next few years.     

Of course, Josh may well be right. My little bet is my ticket to what will be a wild ride. Cannot wait for the 2020s!

Constellation Research event: Expansive, respectful vibe

Let's face it - industry events are increasingly formulaic. Most vendor conferences are predictable - keynotes and product futures, rock bands, large partner booths. Most research firm events tend to be siloed around their category definitions and what currently excites them. So, I particularly enjoy events like Cognizant Community which are about conversations with peers, mind expansion, and not so much about bragging or selling.  

I had a chance to spend a day at Ray Wang's Constellation Connected Enterprise event this week. The event honored a wide number of innovative customer executives, definitely different from other events where vendor executives dominate. It is different from the Cognizant vibe - the content here was much more dense and rapid fire. But I liked the panel and fireside chat formats. Way too many events have one talking head after another. I find in my own presentations, the conversational style with a moderator improves audience engagement. Of course, in the 30 minute CCE session format, there is not much time for audience questions. Instead you get to ask questions one on one. In fact, many attendees were outside networking. Ray had opened the event with - 'you are all here because you are intelligent, innovative...and impatient'. I was clearly a rookie - most attendees had been to 3 or more of the 9 annual CCE events. They get their value from the networking outside the sessions. Impatience personified:)

The wide breadth of sessions was refreshing, if covered a bit shallowly. CCE had sessions on sports, economics, fintech and much more. People know me as a SAP or an outsourcing analyst, but the reality also is my New Florence blog has racked up close to 7,000 posts over the last 15 years and books like the New Polymath have focused on the exponential payback from combining cleantech, healthtech, agritech and more. I enjoy diversity in topics.

I could have participated in the event remotely. Every session was streamed like this chat with Aneel Bhusri of Workday. Every session had a visual story from Heather Willem artists like the one above and below. Given Ray's own prolific Twitter habits, the audience provided instant feedback in tweets on every session. However, I am glad I was there in person and here is what I observed in the few hours I was on-site

Honoring the Past

Ray had his parents in the audience. That was very respectful as was his fireside chat with Vint Cerf. It was good to see on-stage executives from MicroStrategy, Tibco, Infosys. These companies are not dead by any means - they are reinventing themselves. It was good to see Jim Cavalieri of Salesforce and Aneel Bhusri of Workday in different sessions look back and honor Marc Benioff. In many ways, it was nostalgic and feel-good. As an industry, we don't do enough of that.

Savoring the Present

To me it is puzzling that so many people are miserable and angry when the economy is so vibrant. I like meeting content people so it was nice to spend a few minutes with Ray's wife, Tina who balances so much with a smile. Ditto with Ray's associates like Dion, Holger and Nicole who are always positive. I only had one meal at the event but have to point out several people at my lunch table went back for the to-die-for crab bisque. The administrative and event staff did an excellent job with logistics.  Dr. Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics had an informative and humorous session on the world economy and assured the audience the US economy is healthy short-term given its energy and manufacturing balance, but cautioned about longer term impact of national debts and aging demographics.

Inviting the Future

It was nice to see Ray's son, Nathan and his school mates at a table - a good metaphor for what's coming next. There were sessions on spatial computing, blockchain, quantum computing, global opportunities. In my conversations I heard of next-gen applications - very little mention of today's vendors, much more of start-ups, custom development, platforms from Google, Amazon and Microsoft. 

Some quotes out of hundreds I heard give you a clue to the future world that was discussed - not all positive, but should give you a flavor for the variety of conversations

• The notion of pure anonymity on the internet may evaporate
• We need to get beyond Next Best Action to Next Best Conversation. If you don’t understand me, how can you support me?
• Teach your kids French. Africa will play a big role in the future and French is a common denominator on that continent.
• 3D designs that look crappy look REALLY crappy in VR
• Digital strategy should run parallel to corporate strategy - Under Armour needs have evolved from apparel footwear industry features to that of a fitness platform
• We are significantly increasing our attack (vulnerability) surface as we head into 5G and with massive amounts of IoT.
• Tracking your lettuce from farm to store doesn’t implicitly add security or prevent it from spoiling. It made zero sense to me when I first heard that use case and it still makes zero sense today.
• “Our equipment works equally well on the earth or the moon for intelligent data processing. We will have mining operations on the moon in about 15 years.“

If you were looking for a string to pull all the pearls together, sure Ray has it. I was only there for a third of the event so have no right to expect that. His loyal fans who show up every year will likely say - who cares? It is a good forum to enjoy Ray's hospitality, get some pretzel logic, energize body and soul and to renew long-term friendships. Mission accomplished. Glad I could be part of it.  

Gradually, then suddenly

Lots of people are rattled by all the executive changes in the industry over the last few months ...Bill McDermott and Rob Enslin at SAP...John Donahoe at ServiceNow...Mark Hurd and Thomas Kurian at Oracle ...Charles Phillips at Infor....Bob Stutz at Salesforce....

There is plenty of speculation ... Call me old fashioned, but I take the long view and being one degree of separation removed from many of these executives, I prefer to do my usual 360 degree calling around. Besides, as a colleague said "The signals were there if you knew where to look". Hemingway was even more poetic when he wrote “How did you go bankrupt?" Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”  

To me, change is healthy. And often builds up over a couple of decades. Unlike many, I am not that agitated by what is happening in Washington or London. I ignore the shenanigans and the political media but I can see why we got to where we did. And look at ways to adapt to the changes.

Same thing with enterprise tech. In my recent book, I cataloged the last twenty years and described how Apple near dead, Google, Amazon, Foxconn and many others, mere babes then have thrived. I looked at how over a million on-prem customers have not budged. How 80% of the geographic and vertical white spaces have not been filled with modern solutions. Systems integrators continue to try and do business the same old, labor intensive ways they did in the last go-around. 

It would be silly to not expect major changes given this build up. The key is not to confuse individual with corporate trajectories. The good news is we are seeing new leaders like Jen Morgan get a chance to put her imprint. With McDermott headed to ServiceNow and Stutz to SAP, we will see plenty of activity in the customer/revenue-centric segment of the market. There will be lots more activities in areas that did not see investment in the last few years.

Here's my advice to customers. Take time to revisit your application portfolio. There are plenty of opportunities to modernize, consolidate, better integrate your applications. Your legacy has security and compliance risks and plenty of recruiting risks as you look to attract younger talent.

To vendors - question what may have worked over the last decade or so. Plenty of new opportunities and threats to focus us.

There will be plenty of distracting noise and speculation as we are seeing in politics.   Ignore all that, disrupt yourself and embrace the change.  Lots coming.

A wide open race in enterprise software

If you are into speeds and feeds, last week in sports was particularly interesting. It marked the 19th anniversary of Dale Earnhardt's improbable win at the Talladega Superspeedway. Seemingly hopeless in 18th place with just 4 laps to go, Earnhardt somehow went on to win that NASCAR race. It was his last major win. Watch the last few laps in the video below.

Earlier in the week, Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya ran 26.2 miles in Vienna is a record-breaking time for a marathon in just under two hours. It was not an official race but it showed the art of the possible when technology (supplied by Nike, INEOS and others) and technique come together as I posted on New Florence. 

As we approach the end of this decade, I have thinking a lot about the race in enterprise software.

In my recent book. I looked at the last 20 years in software. By many metrics, the pace of change has been glacial. Over a million on-prem customers have not migrated core applications to modern cloud or in-memory architectures. On the vendor side there are all kinds of neglected white spaces when you look at industry or country specific coverage.

And yet the vendor landscape has changed considerably. You could argue Apple, Amazon and Google have had more of an influence on enterprise applications than did SAP, Oracle and Microsoft. Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe, Workday and others have become major players. Plenty of global and vertical players are nipping at the heels. With customers building more than buying applications players like VMWare have become more influential. Service providers have evolved - many these days are as much contract manufacturers, digital agencies and third party maintenance providers. Telcos are gearing up for a next wave of 5G and satellite services. Customers are themselves becoming tech vendors as they make their own products and services smarter with software and sensor support.

When I talk to CIOs these days, I hear of opportunities and challenges like vendor end-of- life dates, automation, digital transformation, multi-cloud leverage and application portfolio consolidation. They increasingly worry about their recruiting profile as younger tech staff show little interest in supporting their legacy applications.  Vendors are themselves showing signs of big change - there is new management in the last few months at SAP, Infor, Oracle and Unit4.

It should be an exciting next few years. May be the roaring Twenties again? But they also raise some interesting questions: Will we see an Earnhardt break away from an increasingly crowded vendor market? In that race he was described as"...suddenly, seeming out of nowhere, Earnhardt charged forward, parting the field like Moses parting the Red Sea.."

And who like Kipchoge is working on stuff that makes you go wow. 

In my role, I am paid to help clients put bets, so I have my views on the likely Earnhardts and the Kipchoges.  But I would love to hear your perspectives. Comment away!

 

RIP Mark Hurd

Larry Ellison hinted at this in his keynote at Oracle OpenWorld last month. He joked he did not have many friends and that he would hate to lose Mark Hurd. In a corny way that was quite a tribute to the man, who at 62 passed away way too young.

Over the years I had come to respect the man - we had conversations around complex supply chains and global policy matters. Most people did not realize how analytical he was and made Oracle marketing a digital marvel and made their sales organization much younger. He had an interesting presentation style and preferred to come off the stage and podium - that puzzled some folks but I thought it was humble of him to come down to the level of his audience.

His presentations always invoked data on market trends. Which is where I did not always see eye to eye with him. Given the market opportunities he presented, I wondered why Oracle's products and investments did not always take advantage of those white spaces.

It's not the time to bicker. Oracle and the whole tech industry has lost a disciplined operational executive and as a personal tribute, I have to add, we have lost a damn good analyst.  

RIP.