I have been telling some of my friends "I started my career when the pendulum said "Build systems, don't buy them". Since my first implementation (a mainframe application in 1983) I have enjoyed a glory time for packaged applications and related services. However, I am afraid I will end my career with the pendulum swinging back to "Build, don't Buy"
Ok, for starters, I am not retiring anytime soon, so this is not likely to happen for a few years. But then, I have been saying it for a while. In SAP Nation 3.0, which came out two and half years ago, I wrote
"Enterprise vendors, who were sitting so pretty at the turn of the century, have lagged in many new markets, as profiled in the last bunch of subsections (I had identified markets like smart products, digital marketing and the Industrial Internet they missed)."
and
"More alarmingly, we are starting to see customers get tired of waiting for vendors and go back to building their own replacement systems. With microservices, open source and other options, we are seeing the pendulum swing away from buy back to build. That’s a stunning reversal from the 1990s."
What happened last year has only accelerated the pace. We saw new ways of doing business (micro-fulfillment, telemedicine, virtual open houses in real estate etc etc) in most industries and geographies, but many vendors continue to sell what they had in the bag in January 2020.
I saw The Shawshank Redemption recently (for the nth time) where the Andy Dufresne character says at a pivotal point "Get busy living or get busy dying". And I asked myself why are we wasting time with vendors which 2020 confirmed are the 'living dead", when there are so many others are vibrant?
Let's talk about the vibrant ones first. Whether you think they can get there or not, I love Salseforce's ambition to get to $50 billion in 5 years - 2.5 today's revenues or Workday with its goal of $10 billion by 2025. My recent conversation with Tyler Prince, who runs Global Alliances at Salesforce only confirmed it.
You can see the whole interview with Tyler here and he talks about how Salesforce ISV partners like nCino helped banks through the pandemic. He talks about how SI partners pivoted to a world of virtual deliveries. How with the Slack acquisition Salesforce is helping customers deliver Success from Anywhere with the continued chaos of COVID workplaces. How the TrailBlazer community continues to blossom.
In background, we had a chance to reminisce a bit. Tyler and I helped Price Waterhouse set up a software intelligence group - an internal, mini Gartner - in the early 90s. Tyler reminded me we "found" i2, Commerce One, Platinum Software and many other vendors and introduced them to the PW field. Most of those vendors are a distant memory - as they have changed names or are part of other entities. But it reinforced to me, Salesforce has been busy living.
There are many others who are keeping up with rapid changes. In a book, I recently helped narrate for a CEO I talked to a number of companies which are dramatically reshaping their business models to outcome based contracts and developing platforms like those of Apple and Google. I have talked to strategy consultants and investors who are putting together application portfolios for micro-verticals most vendors know very little about. More proof of busy living.
Now for the living dead. While they continue to invest in areas like quantum computing, they have done little to help move along the enterprise application game. If anything, their products and services burden applications with a significant layer of overhead.
Take Arvind Krishna, the new CEO at IBM. He inherited from the previous CEO, Ginni Rometty a labor-intensive outsourcing business and an aging systems software portfolio where application assets like Maximo struggle to be recognized (Tivoli, Domino - want me to go on?). Ginni herself was dealt those cards by Sam Palmisano a decade prior. IBM now has a cash dividend yield which makes some public utilities look stingy. Not my idea of "get busy living" in this vibrant digital market.
Or Oracle. It continues to spend billions of dollars in legal fees trying to protect a business model of maintenance revenue which is decades old. Think how long it would take them to move to outcome based models. They call themselves an ERP vendor, but hardly ever talk about operational areas. They spent billions acquiring retail, utility, telco and other vertical industry assets but largely talk about their cross-industry accounting and HCM products. The cross-industry space is one of the most crowded with competitors. Their prerogative - but not my idea of "get busy living"
In contrast, there are companies like Amazon and Spotify delivering ecommerce and fulfillment capabilities to thousands of small merchants. On a pay-as-you-go basis. There is Zoho which has taken a page out of Amazon Prime and keeps delivering to thousands of SMEs more apps each year for the same price as part of its Zoho One suite. Think these customers are going to sign up for Oracle or NetSuite licensing and IBM's hybrid clouds and services given the price points and convenience they have become used to? Or even large companies - I know several executives who have unwritten "no new purchase" policies around vendors who have treated them like cash cows over the last decade.
Don't mean to pick on just those two vendors. There are many other vendors who have wasted much of the last decade.
They have been busy:
- renaming products (over and over) instead of building new functionality
- pretending to be focused on UX and "experience" when much of the innovation there has come from consumer tech.
- investing heavily in analytics and cloud architecture but not growing their geographic or vertical functionality
- continuing to rely on armies of people when they should be automating and moving to digital services like their customers
- screaming about machine learning when very little customer data is available in their clouds or worse, is locked up in customer data centers their machines cannot learn from
- scheming to charge more for the same while claiming to be proud about Moore's Law
- bragging about their diversity, their "ethics", their green policies. Nice, but how about also some new features and functions?
I do hope they turn around. I am reminded of this quote from Hemingway's novel The Sun Also Rises
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.”
I plan to spend much more time with those busy living. And especially with those that recognize they are at a critical juncture and like Andy decide they need to do something radical.
Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce, has long preached the Zen Buddhist concept of Shoshin = Beginner's Mind. Look at everything afresh, even if you are an expert in the field. He said again recently "In this new world, if you're not cultivating a beginner's mind as a CEO, you're making a mistake."
I could not agree more. Pivots, rebrands and turnarounds are always more fun to work with. Let's get busy living. So many new applications to create and deliver.
ERP - Generation Next
I read Jon Reed's Diginomica interview with Rondy Ng, Senior Vice President, Applications Development at Oracle. He cites some very large cloud ERP customers - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, FedEx, Kroger and Albertsons. Encouragingly, he also cites plenty of global coverage. Good to see that traction.
But what functionality have they deployed? I saw General Ledger mentioned a couple of times along with procurement and analytics. But no mention of manufacturing, logistics, banking/brokerage functionality, micro-fulfillment, or reverse logistics. I have heard Larry Ellison similarly use the ERP moniker in earnings calls and event keynotes, but never really discuss any operational functionality. Leads me to ask: Is that the new, shrunk definition of ERP - core financials and possibly human resources?
While I was pondering that, I found myself going down memory lane to 1995 when I joined Gartner. Gartner had coined the ERP term and they had made a conscious effort to bring in several new recruits with business process expertise. Tom Ryan, as part of the ILS service, brought warehouse management and broader logistics experience. Chris Jones, part of CIM, brought process manufacturing. As part of AAS, I brought financial and hr expertise from years at Price Waterhouse. There were several others who focused on PDM, MKT and other functional areas. We definitely contributed to a proliferation in TLAs but I know for a fact we drove vendors to sharpen their process breadth and depth. Talking of TLAs, I had coined one - AMM - Addressable Market Myopia for vendors who were narrow in their functional reach, but did not dare propose it to Gartner censors :)
When I left in 2000, I was confident Gartner would expand its ERP focus beyond manufacturing sectors. After all, in most western economies, nearly 3/4 of jobs were in the service sector. And each has unique books of record - insurance needs those around policies and claims, health care had unique clinical and compliance requirements and so on. The manufacturing sector itself was morphing significantly. The products are smarter with embedded software and sensors. The plant was becoming more autonomous. Asset management was no longer just about calculating depreciation for the CFO. It is about predictive maintenance, more sophisticated servicing via digital twins and augmented reality.
But Gartner has only inconsistently focused on this functional evolution. Many of the process experts they had hired in the 90s were gone by the end of the decade. If anything, it swung back to its IT comfort zone and has emphasized the architectural aspects of cloud computing. And, almost on cue, many ERP vendors made transitioning to the cloud their major focus of the last couple of decades. Functionality and process expertise took a back seat. No wonder, some vendors are shrinking their definitions of ERP to suit their limited functionality. And CRM, EAM and other categories have encroached on spaces ERP vendors have neglected.
I sense a new generation of ERP coming. The pendulum is swinging from a technology focus to a functional focus. The pandemic has sharpened industry specific needs. Telemedicine in healthcare, distance learning in higher education, virtual open houses and digital mortgages in real estate are just some of the examples.
Just last week, I had several reminders of the functional evolution. Zoho gave me a pre-briefing on its updated Zoho One suite. It will officially be announced in a couple of weeks, but the suite has now grown to 45 applications. SAP has lined up 9 briefings for me across its verticals. I met with Mike Ettling, CEO of Unit4 and we discussed how his verticals are evolving. I was part of a virtual event on Servitization and heard how automotive, construction and many other sectors are increasingly moving to "everything as a service".
Gartner coined the term ERP just prior to when I got there. But for a couple of decades companies had already been deploying MRP and MRP II functionality. We will similarly see a next generation. It may not even be called ERP - to shed the baggage the moniker has acquired with too many delayed and bloated projects.
But the market is definitely marching forward. One thing I am fairly certain of - the next gen of ERP will not suffer from AMM - Addressable Market Myopia.
Adding from a twitter thread with Jon
In fairness many other vendors have not evolved their functionality especially during the pandemic and with recent supply chain issues. Lots of brilliant architects but few process visionaries. Need both.
With brilliant architects but no process visionaries you would never get Amazon’s fulfillment center with chaos theory models, miles of conveyors and hundreds of robots. You would deliver the old process model.
October 11, 2021 in Cloud Computing, SaaS, Industry Commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)