I skipped SAP Sapphire Celebration night at Universal Studios last week. One of the reasons was that park no longer has the Back to the Future ride. Besides, I got plenty of the juxtaposition of the past, present and future at the event.
On Day 0– the analyst track day that a few of us were invited to, I thought the feel was retro. Julia White, CMO and her team have spent a lot of effort on the new SAP.com site. It is uncluttered, crisp and pleasant and provides a nice index to its portfolio of hundreds of solutions. However, the jargon on the home page jumped out – ERP, CRM, SCM, HCM. Those are acronyms that my colleagues and I at Gartner had coined in the 1990s. A disproportionate majority of attendees for that track wore Gartner, IDC, Forrester name badges and they keep reinforcing those acronyms with their MQs and Marketscapes. The signage on the show floor magnified those terms in large font. We were given a series of media announcements – under embargo. It all felt very 90s for an event which was themed “future-proof”.
It got better – I knew it would. Clare Henry in Julia’s team had given us a sneak preview of the event. In her session on the day, Julia had given us a preview of CEO Christian Klein’s kickoff keynote and promised it would focus more broadly on enterprise buying centers and sure enough it did.
Some of you have heard me say a switch went off in 2019 and we have seen 4 major (I estimate they will get to over a trillion in TAM each) application markets open up – I had written about them here. COVID, the Ukraine crisis, climate change urgency and massive digital transformations have turned every industry and geography upside down. That is allowing for a new breed of vertical edge and regional applications. Now low/no code tools for domain experts and excitement about Generative AI are morphing the market even more.
You have also heard me say I am increasingly impatient with vendors who just try to spray paint what they had in the bag in 2019.
Sure enough, S/4HANA got plenty of play at Sapphire, with new variants of RISE and GROW. S/4 adoption is finally accelerating – I had predicted it would take a few years to do so in my 2015 book, SAP Nation 2.0 ( I had also compared that to slow maturing and adoption of Oracle, Microsoft, Infor next-gen ERP).
There was a lot of pleading about keeping the “core clean”. Christian shared a visit with a customer who had lifted and shifted their heavily customized system to the S/4 cloud and added new customizations and ended up with a 30X implementation to software ratio. Walking around the partner booths there was plenty of similar migration project talk.
So, how do I benchmark SAP in those 4 emerging markets after what I heard at this Sapphire?
Vertical Edge applications
SAP had a head start here. My team helped Thomas Saueressig and Peter Maier research and write the Business as Unusual book and I ran a session with Peter at Sapphire. We discussed many of the “megatrends” in the book and the impact on various industries and the emergence of vertical edge applications like intelligent eCommerce returns and EV charging management and billing. We presented the slide below and several others – you can download them here.
In the Integrated Mobility chapter we had talked about the Catena-X auto industry network that SAP is part of. SAP has been evolving its experience around Ariba, Fieldglass, Concur and related indirect expenses and materials into networks which touch on direct materials and tier 1 and lower suppliers. In his keynote, Christian introduced similar plans for 4 other sectors – Industrial Manufacturing, Life Sciences, High Tech and CPG.
Sven Denecken’s session was about “Industry Convergence” and he presented on verticalized CX with examples from Retail, CPG, Automotive and Utilities. His session provided more context to the Farm to Consume show floor where SAP and partners showcased various applications, robotics and sensors with use cases from agribusiness all the way to retail.
Talking of industry convergence, I spent some time with Daniela Sellmann who talked about how Utilities and Energy sectors are blending.
I can confidently say SAP is the most verticalized of the enterprise applications vendors. But I have seen plenty of that with the time I spent with its industry experts as part of the book process. SAP would do well to expose more of that internal talent and industry specific partners at such events – and also invite more industry specific media and analysts
Emerging economies
I spent a month in India earlier this year. The energy and momentum is palpable. More importantly I heard people talking about new trading partners in the Middle East, Indonesia, Nigeria etc. These emerging economies look poised to grow quicker than the Western world over the next decade. They will be major software markets with unique functionality, language requirements and different price points.
Eva Zauke had presented on SAP’s localization efforts in this Analyst Cam episode – SAP has 585 local versions (including support for payroll processing in 104 countries) as it supports 200+ million users globally. At Sapphire, I spent some more time with her and it struck me how MNCs are shifting country commitments at an unusually fast pace – some due to embargoes, others to escape high inflation, still others to balance out their global supply chains. SAP is well positioned to support them in such transitions.
What about fast-growing local companies in these emerging markets – not just subsidiaries of MNCs? I asked Scott Russell, who I first met at an event in Thailand, and has done a lot of business across Asia. His thoughts: “In the Middle East and other regions we have a benefit in that we have (already) scaled out our field coverage. And we operate in a lot of local markets with a lot of local partners with a lot of localization. Our challenge is how do you get an ecosystem to support that local market? We're building across the organization, the digital engagement model, and a tele and remote engagement model, it gives us more ability to reach into those further markets with partners on the ground, and our kind of digital engagement backstop to it. So I'm pretty optimistic about our ability. One of our assets as a company is we're so globally oriented. We get it and we know how to move into remote regions effectively.”
Their growing S/4 public cloud, the emphasis on mid-sized enterprises with GROW and solutions like Business ByDesign also give them an opportunity to compete more effectively on economics in these markets. Sapphire used to be centrally hosted in Orlando in the past. In the last couple of years, it has been split up. This year it is being hosted in Orlando, Barcelona and Sao Paolo (run in Brazilian Portuguese). Another way, SAP can continue to target more regionally.
Custom Development
SAP showcased Enterprise Automation at Sapphire emphasizing Signavio, the Business Process Management tool it acquired in 2021 and Integration and Build components of the Business Technology Platform (BTP). In a nice touch, Julia, a marketing not a development exec, herself ran the demo and talked about “1000s of pre-built integrations, bots and workflows”
Historically, development in SAP world has relied on capabilities of SAP Mentors and SI specialists. SAP would do well to build a Salesforce Trailblazer type ecosystem with a lighter set of admin and developer skills as their answer to the call for more no/low code capabilities.
AI
Given the hype around Generative AI, I found SAP’s somewhat cautious positioning at the event a bit refreshing. They did announce integration of SuccessFactors HCM with Microsoft 365 Copilot and Copilot and Microsoft’s Azure OpenAI Service to access powerful language models. The result could be better job descriptions, learning recommendations and job interview questions. SAP also shared a series of AI enabled use cases in procurement, customer service and freight management among others.
Given SAP’s much more differentiated capabilities by verticals and countries, I would expect a much bigger chunk of use cases to follow. There is of course the pesky question of how much operational data is available with appropriate customer permissions to feed these models.
I have a provocative challenge to SAP and its ecosystem. Use Gen AI to automate a number of SI steps on projects. Thousands of ECC to S/4 migrations have been completed. There are work plans, data conversion code, testing scripts, end user training manuals and countless other artifacts to be mined. With Gen AI, you don’t just automate lift and shift – you can specify specific filters that would tailor them to each implementation. Time to bring that long awaited productivity to the ecosystem and de-skill the talent needed on these projects.
Side note – my former colleague at Gartner, Andrew Dailey recently asked me if I still had a copy of a report we had written about ERP SIs in 1998. I found it in my archives and smiled when I read the opening para. “”Michelangelo should not charge Sistine Chapel rates for painting a farmer’s barn” once ruled a U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Although the ruling in this case related to lawyer’s fees, it might well have related to systems integrator fees on an application implementation project.” Amazing how labor intensive and overpriced the SI world still is – another throwback to the 90s
Much more
There was plenty of other product focus during the event including a Green Ledger which combines financial and environmental data at different points across business processes and an Open Data partnership with Google Cloud. In conversations with other analysts I got the feedback that this event appeared to have much more product focus than in the recent past.
Summary
Over 50 years SAP has sheltered its over 400,000 customers through multiple recessions and architectural transitions. Christian Klein and his young management team have navigated the pandemic extremely well. They now have the opportunity to start looking more into the future and distance themselves from the competition in these new markets I described.
They can start thinking about the next 50 years, not just leveraging the product portfolio they already had in 2019. In other words, become more ambitious about the event’s theme of “future-proofing” the customer base.
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