Mankind has been through multiple energy transitions. Our ancestors burned wood, used peat bog and other biofuels. The Romans were particularly ingenious at using water and wind power. Coal fueled the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s. The 1900s belonged to oil and gas especially as humans became much more mobile.
We are in the midst of another major energy transition as we all move to low-carbon futures. To me, the exciting thing is we will likely end up with a cocktail of energy sources – wind, solar, tidal, gas, nuclear fusion, upgraded biofuels, hydroelectric and geothermal combined with storage in the form of hydrogen fuel cells and electric batteries. And I could make that list much longer.
We should be celebrating this coming abundance. Instead, we are vilifying one source or another, using FUD to try and accelerate the transition to our favorite flavor. My projection - there will likely never be a single solution. Different countries will take their own paths. Just look at how they have been evolving in the last few decades, each with their own version of energy independence
- Germany deserves a lot of credit for maturing modern versions of wind and solar (wind mills and photovoltaic cells have been around far longer). And yet the majority of its energy still has come from its coal and from Russian gas. Going forward it will continue with its wind/solar but diversify with LNG logistics and a hydrogen future.
- The US image is dirty – yet between 1990 and 2020 its greenhouse gases stayed steady, even as its GDP went up 5X. The largest single contributor was that many of its utilities switched from coal to much cleaner gas. And that gas had its own remarkable story thanks to entrepreneurs like George Mitchell who contributed to the US version of energy independence
- France gets 2/3rd of its electricity from nuclear power. While much of the world conjures up images of Chernobyl and other disasters, the French reacted to the OPEC oil crisis in the 1970s with the brutally realistic assessment of “No oil, no gas, no coal, no choice” and embraced nuclear and continues with it.
- Norway has the highest per capita adoption of electric vehicles in the world. And these EVs are the “greenest” in the world. Over 90% of its electricity comes from hydroelectric sources. It is a country blessed with plenty of deep valleys and rivers. It is doubly blessed with plenty of North Sea oil and gas which it mostly exports – valued at over half of all of its exports.
- Iceland, Kenya and the Philippines (among others) get much of their energy from geothermal. Factoid – after solar, geothermal is the second most abundant source of energy available to humans.
Update - someone asked me what about the BRICS countries and others like Indonesia and in Africa. They have been trying out their own version of energy independence. Brazil pioneered ethanol from its cane decades ago. China has invested heavily in modern hydroelectric. Their challenge is they are still too heavily dependent on fossil fuels, particularly coal. They will have to innovate their own path to low carbon. They cannot pretend the rest of the world will make up for them. Their emissions more than offset the improvements we are seeing in some of the countries named above.
I have personally been dismayed by the demonizing of the oil and gas sector. In fairness, the industry has done a poor job marketing its contribution to our lives. Did you know over 6,000 items we use every day from lip balm to carpeting get their start in crude oil?
I worked in the oil patch in the 80s in Texas, Saudi, Holland, Bahrain among other places. It is an incredibly complex and brave industry. I say brave because they work in some of the most forsaken, hostile, risky places on earth. And have mind-bogglingly complex protocols for safety on rigs, tankers, refineries etc.
But importantly here’s why we will continue to need that sector to combat climate change. They have some of the only companies in the world that can run multi-billion $ projects, plan 20 years out, have tons of chemists, physicists, quantum computing wizards etc.
I have talked to some oil execs recently and it’s impressive what they are thinking about carbon capture/storage, LNG logistics, green hydrogen, geothermal etc. Low carbon is a definite focus.
The Ukraine crisis has reminded us once again of the essential need for energy independence. It is AND, not OR as we worry about emissions. Vice versa, for the BRICS and many other economies it cannot just be a focus on independence, it has to balance their massive emissions.
Go back to what I said earlier. In no previous transition has mankind had so many choices in energy sources. It’s a reason to celebrate, not bicker. That should be the best middle finger we can show Putin.
