As we have moved to virtual briefings, I have increasingly been excerpting short video segments (with permission ) as part of my Analyst Cam series.
This time it is Rich Wagner, CEO of Prevedere, which offers what it calls “intelligent forecasting”. I would say it is helping move that analytical world forward by helping focusing on external signals not just building on historical trends. Thanks to the Workday Ventures team for the introduction.
Over a decade ago I wrote a case study on the National Hurricane Center. I observed
“To deliver those forecasts, the NHC team takes an invasive approach to collecting a wide variety of external, real - time data. Too much business forecasting today is based on internal and historical data or looks at Google or external sources, such as Bloomberg and Gartner for its primary data.”
The case study described all the data the NHC collects via satellites, buoy and other sensors, from Hurricane Hunter flights and other sources. How it uses supercomputers to crunch multiple, often conflicting models. How it audits its performance at the end of each season and keeps improving storm track forecasts every year.
Listening to Rich, I got a similar vibe and as he wrote in Forbes
“Companies should be checking the millions of global data series available from thousands of public and private sources across the world related to markets, industry, weather, trade policy, geopolitics, macroeconomics, consumer behavior and more. Most often, companies will focus on their internal historical data trends coupled with anecdotal viewing of general industry data sets and gross domestic product (GDP), all of which are no longer predictable. Companies need all of the data necessary to provide a holistic view of global, regional and local economies in order to monitor for key signals of upcoming changes in demand.”
And these days, almost every enterprise can easily access machine learning capabilities to hone in on variables that are particularly relevant to their industry, geography, channels and other attributes. The definition of book of record needs to become much wider.
He also discusses how his tools integrate with other planning tools and with ERP applications like those from Workday.
We have a nice conversation about a customer, Tractor Supply Co. They have taken advantage of market signals about the growth of a “Country Suburban” demographic and it has shown up in their new store locations and in SKUs to emphasize items like poultry in backyards.
He also has a very interesting POV on how the 2008 recession was very different from the 2020 pandemic induced one. We also discuss how enterprises are increasingly looking for integrated planning tools and emphasizing consensus forecasts across functional silos.
I found the conversation riveting. Enjoy it below.
