deal architect

A much better Day 2 at Dreamforce. A fantastic one, actually

Updated for the CPG keynote on Day 3

Day 2 was much, much better than Day 1. It was a day for apps - not causes. Especially vertical apps. Readers know I have been screaming for those.

I watched four sessions on Manufacturing, Auto and Energy; Financial Services and Health/Life Sciences and Consumer Products sectors

While the verticals are vastly different (and Salesforce's groupings are unwieldy in size and coverage), some common threads apply:

Salesforce has big brands working with it in each of the industries - Kawasaki Motors, BMW, Engie Energy, State Farm, Barclays, Johnson and Johnson, NYU Langone Health Frito Lay and Shiseido (cosmetics) among others.

Salesforce is helping modernize some really antique/complex corners of these industries - you have healthcare which is single-handedly keeping fax machines in business, you have equipment dealers who continue with some of the oldest printers in the world, insurance agents who cannot afford tech staff and cramped retail store space

Salesforce is not doing the vertical heavy lifting - yet. The operational systems of record are still the Epics, SAPs, proprietary claims and dealer management systems. However, Mulesoft is freeing up and helping share data locked up in those systems. In the next wave, Salesforce and its AppExchange partners may be able to gradually move into these operational areas.

Salesforce is bringing mobile apps, voice interfaces, machine vision (to help with the CPG store planogram), Einstein AI and Tableau to each of these markets. The end result is pleasing, consumer grade technology that users lap up   

Its sophisticated clients are doing neat stuff of their own. State Farm described drone initiated claims processing. Johnson and Johnson talked about how it personalizes its contact lenses with fitting calculators and other tools (and has dramatically improved doctor visits to conversion ratios). Engie is at the leading edge of renewable energy generation, smart grids and digital energy technology. Frito-Lay says it is actually "embracing complexity" with exploding choices in snacks, go to market channels and yet need to drive sustainability in products.

The customers and Salesforce are feeding off each other. They are building a new generation of vertical functionality. It's exciting for their industries and for the enterprise applications sector. We have had way too much focus on horizontal apps.

A disappointing start to Dreamforce

I wrote last week I am excited about Salesforce's verticals and that I planned to watch many of the industry sessions scheduled at Dreamforce today. However, last year's CEO Marc Benioff's keynote did a really nice job showcasing customer case studies - I shared this post with several other vendors asking them to use as a guide for their own customer stories. So, I was hoping for a redux and set aside a couple of hours to listen to this year's opening keynote - here is a replay.

Marc and his team did profile a couple of customers - State Farm Insurance and Louis Vuitton. However, the focus was more product-centric and rushed. Just did not have, at least for me,  the same impact last year's format did.

Worse, there was a protest which interrupted the session. I have been reading Marc's new book, Trailblazer, and while I admire the positions he has taken on LGBTQ issues, gender pay equality and homelessness among others I have been wondering if that just attracts more causes which clamor for his and the company's attention. I got my answer during his keynote. CNBC reports

"A man standing near the stage started reading from a piece of paper, criticizing Salesforce’s contract with U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

 “Okay, we’re going to let you talk for 30 seconds,” Benioff said to the man. “But, however, at the end of the 30 seconds, you have to agree that you’re going to leave. Do you agree?”"

A giant digital timer on the screen then began ticking down. “We’re going to put the clock up. You have 28 seconds left,” Benioff said."

"Minutes later, another protester started shouting, but the comments were inaudible.

“We’ve heard from your group, and we will [be] happy to have a further conversation with you,” Benioff said. “We gave you your time. We will continue to give you other opportunities to speak. Thank you very much.”

I thought Marc handled the protesters very well and even scored points when he said he supported free speech. But with the timer and a security lady in the picture you got the distinct sense that Salesforce was prepared for this and even bigger protests outside Moscone. Honestly, I was filled with dread - what next?

I had hoped Benioff would do his fireside chat with Tim Cook of Apple as part of the keynote. It was actually later in the day when I had a conflict. Instead, the stream had a fireside chat with Anand Giridharadas, Editor-at-Large for TIME. His focus was what he calls "Voluntary Virtue" - the faux concern he thinks the wealthy show in solving societal issues like inequality. He talked about his book Winners Take All: The Elite Charade of Changing the World. He was particularly tough on Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorganChase. (btw I am a Chase customer and personally think their customer service sucks but I thought Anand was unfair to Jamie). More than anything as an editor of a leading magazine I wish he had been balanced. Instead he focused on the two ends of the wealth bell curve and ignored our still-substantial middle class. I tweeted him after the session

By now, I was distracted with calls and had the Dreamforce feed in background. I did see bits of pieces of two sessions which both focused on AI and ethical issues. 

I am approaching the decade milestone of The New Polymath. In that book, I had laid out many thorny technology-led ethical issues. I had interviewed lawyers, academics and analysts on these issues including Dr. Herman Tavani, professor of computer ethics at Rivier College. I had observed

"Clearly, this walking encyclopedia on cyberethics is not being leveraged enough by technology practitioners and future business leaders. (Professor James Moor at Dartmouth also confirmed he is not often consulted by technology vendors.)

In the last few years I have seen it flip. We are proactively worrying about potential ethical issues around AI and autonomous cars when they are years from becoming mainstream. As one panelist observed " AI is like teenage sex: everyone says they’re doing it, but no one actually knows what it is." Exactly, but we still seem to spend hours fretting about potentially biased algorithms, not about the productivity and payback from these new technologies. In contrast, long festering ethical issues I had laid out in my book are still being ignored.  

Look, Dreamforce has always been a "different' conference. It is a Tony Robbins type rah -rah, scream your throat hoarse event. You run into will.i.am and Deepak Chopra and Colin Powell and Richard Branson and who knows who else here.

But at the end of the day, I shuddered that a certain line may have been crossed at Dreamforce. I go out of my way to avoid political media, and in this sanctuary of a tech and innovation event, I should feel sheltered from that.    

I just hope today's vertical sessions focus much more on innovative customers and products. Yes, feel free to call me boring.  

Salesforce's vertical journey

As part of my series of posts on vertical solutions, I had an excellent briefing this week from Neeracha Taychakhoonavudh, EVP of Industries at Salesforce. I am also impressed at the wide range of sessions by industry that are being offered at Dreamforce next week. Here, for example, is the "trail map" of sessions for the financial services sector. They have similar for travel and hospitality, retail and consumer goods, public sector, media and communications, manufacturing, health and life sciences.

It would be fair to say that Salesforce's vertical journey to date has come in fits and starts. In his new book, Trailblazer, CEO Marc Benioff describes the "Merrill Lynch Mutiny". Merrill (and parent Bank of America) in 2013 was at the time Salesforce’s biggest customer and nearly threw the vendor out. As Marc describes they creatively worked out the issues, but as you can imagine a failure there would have significantly slowed down its financial services drive. Similarly, he describes a brilliant piece of marketing to get them to position the Toyota Friend IoT platform and then leverage that to other manufacturing customers. But these were opportunistic moves, not well thought out industry strategies.

Also, after a decade of AppExchange there still aren't many partners that offer detailed operational books of record - like insurance claims processing or retail merchandising or clinical coverage in healthcare on the Force platform. While Veeva which sells in the pharma sector has a annual billion dollar revenue run rate, most of the others are sub-$ 100 million - so somewhat modest after a decade, compared to Salesforce's own rocketship growth selling more horizontally.

The Merrill hiccup seven years ago is a distant memory and its the pace of industry focus has accelerated.  Salesforce's own vertical functionality tends to be in its wheelhouse - in customer-centric, front-office areas like mortgage borrower apps in financial services and local government licensing and permitting in the public sector. 

Given the massive size of the verticals they are targeting, the Salesforce/partner coverage is still limited. But one slide in particular Neeracha presented shows their momentum. They are showing up in more industry specific events like HIMSS and not only attracting more prospects from those verticals (who in turn clamor for more industry functionality) but also getting a chance to understand and potentially recruit the operational vendors who present at those events.

I look forward to next week's industry sessions at Dreamforce and also tracking Salesforce's partner ecosystem growth. After two decades of cloud and in-memory applications, only about 20% of a grid across countries and industry processes has a decent choice in contemporary architecture. So many white spaces beckon. I am truly excited about Salesforce's accelerating commitment to verticals.

 

A perspective on the SAP Capital Markets Day

I am a customer and market analyst and tend to not attend too many earnings calls or Wall Street presentations. But I made time to listen to the SAP presentation yesterday. It was a coming out event for the 2 new co-CEOs, Jen Morgan and Christian Klein and there has been much speculation (with a capital S in my opinion, not fact based) about the activist investor impact on SAP trajectory. The full set of presentations is in the video here - without the breaks its about 3 hours long. The theme was "Growth and Operational Excellence" and I liked quite a bit of what I saw and heard.

To me, growth comes from market differentiation and here are key areas where SAP executives scored well

Momentum in Asia

Both Jen and Adaire Fox-Martin made repeated points about Asia/Pac. SAP is very well positioned in that region as I wrote a couple of months ago "SAP has been in Asia over 30 years and now has over 9,000 employees spread across 31 office in the region. The event in Bangkok showed me just how far the competition has to go to catch up."

Cross-selling

I always shake my head at how little cross-selling has taken place across SAP's product portfolio (listen to Jen starting around 0.16 and Christian around 0.34 about inter-dependence and synergy across SAP products). Most of their competitors can only play in one or two categories.  I am seeing many customers look at application rationalization, and reverse a decade of "ring fencing" their ERP with best of breed cloud applications. As SAP better breaks down its many siloes, starts to show more coherent road maps and delivers better integration, its broad suite should open up many new opportunities within its incumbent customers. 

S/4 adoption

SAP is associated with large, multi-national customers, but the CIO of Chobani, the yogurt company, Parag Agrawal (starting 1:29) was a good representative for the mid-sized, fast growing market that S/4 is doing well in. 40% of S/4 adopters are net new to SAP. The ECC to S/4 conversion market is also gathering steam. As Adaire says, the question for most customers is not 'if" but "when" "why" and "how". As I described in SAP Nation 3.0 - "tilting its bell curve of customers" is its largest single opportunity.

XM and CX

Qualtrics is still a missionary sell to many operationally focused ERP buyers but Ryan Smith humorously reminded the audience that precisely a year ago, he was presenting in a road show which valued the company at nearly $ 5 billion, and that now, as part of SAP, the deal size and customer growth has accelerated. It is another differentiation for SAP. Similarly, SAP has had fits and starts when it comes to the CRM market. But with all the musical chairs in the executive suite at many CRM vendors in the last few weeks you get the sense that market is poised for disruption. SAP's CX portfolio, especially the Commerce piece, and with new leadership under Bob Stutz, will get another shot.    

The Microsoft "embrace"

Microsoft and SAP have been 'frenemies" for decades. At Gartner and since I have written about many joint initiatives like Mondecino and Duet (nearly 15 years ago). The collaboration around Azure opens up support of the vast Microsoft channel, and also simplifies the hyperscaler choice for many undecided customers (while keeping open support for customer loads on AWS, Google and Alibaba clouds). The cloud version of S/4 and SCP should in particular benefit.   

Turning to Operational Excellence, there was quite a bit of focus on margin and cash flow improvement.

Christian has led a digital transformation within SAP for a couple of years and it is accelerating. It's the tagline of "Best Run Business" applied to SAP itself. His points, starting around 0.38, lay out the high level agenda.  Adaire described some of the digital and AI impact on the sales function around 1:26. Thomas Saueressig, starting at 1:09 talks about changes in the development organization. He also addressed the thorny issue of integration, especially across the slew of acquisitions in the last decade,  that customers constantly complain about. In his previous role as global CIO at SAP, he is acutely aware of the pain points (It's also something Bob Stutz in the CX area will have to accelerate). He also touched on centralization of infrastructure. which CFO Luka Mucic quantified (starting at 1:40) as they move from 25 mostly acquired technology stacks to a converged one, and also shifting many cloud loads to the 4 hyperscaler partners.

Luka also touched on improvement of cloud gross margins and marketing and SG&A efficiencies - consolidation of many sponsorships, supplier base among others.

Three areas I would like to understand more:

Margins at the expense of customers?

There is plenty of fat to be removed from within SAP and that should deliver the improved margins SAP is promising to investors. But the temptation in our industry is also to milk the customer (Oracle and the fast growing SaaS vendors are not much better). In the last few years, we have seen quite a backlash to Indirect Access and other SAP audits. I am also seeing SAP propose license conversion fees to move from on-prem to cloud versions. Customers are willing to pay for new functionality, not so much for what they have already paid years in maintenance. So, trying to extract more from older function points, which frankly have been commoditized over the last couple of decades, will only slow down incumbent customer traction.

Focus on total cost to customers?

Historically, SAP has not been very good at benchmarking and managing its partners. That led to my quantifying the huge "GDP" of SAP Nation. As we look at moves from ECC to S/4, I am starting to again see scary SI proposals. Labor intensive and not much automation, with the suspect quality and economics those threaten. Now with the 4 hyperscalers customers could face significant additional exposure. SAP likes to brag it has 000s of partners - without pointing out that cost is borne by customers. I would like to see more SAP detail on how it will better manage its ecosystem, and accelerate its automation and application of ML to its many of the routine conversion, testing, training and other tasks - see more ideas here. Adaire did mention conversion factories - like to hear more about that.

Not enough R&D or Capex to grow the functional footprint?

There was surprisingly little on industry functionality. SAP keeps promising its partners are working on it. For the next few years, it appears there will be little excess R&D or capex for acquisitions. While SAP needs that discipline in the short term, markets don't wait for ever. Beyond verticals, as I wrote earlier this week "the definition of the "enterprise" continues to rapidly expand and morph, and I see a very fragmented market for the next few years". SAP says it has a shot at a TAM of $ 500 billion by 2023. In my opinion, they could already be aiming for a trillion.

Overall, there was much to like in the 3 hours. As an analyst, it is my job to keep pushing vendors to do more for customers, but realize the new executives already have a very full plate to tackle. Should be a very exciting next few years. It is a great way to kick off a new decade!

I will see Josh's five and raise him ten!

Josh Greenbaum has a fascinating post - how Microsoft and SAP plan to take over the enterprise software market. There is much in there I agree with. All the recent executive changes - Jen, Christian, Bill, Bob - are exciting for the industry. Microsoft's infrastructure cloud is on a roll - the SAP "Embrace" and the DoD JEDI contract only add to the momentum. But I see much bigger changes in the enterprise software market beyond what SAP and Microsoft will touch.

To me, Google, Facebook, Amazon and agencies like Accenture with their share of digital advertising and CMO access will continue to significantly influence and morph the CRM space

The customer service segment will be significantly reshaped as IoT, satellite, drone based concepts mature. I expect industrial asset makers like Siemens and Caterpillar and logistics providers like UPS and Amazon to also be major players.

Contract manufacturers like Foxconn and Flex and boutique design firms will have more than their fair share of influence in the product engineering and manufacturing areas.

Amazon, Alibaba and other big commerce sites will continue to commoditize fulfillment functionality for countless SMEs and set a bar for broader supply chain and logistics functionality.

Robotics and other automation vendors will reshape many a business process. Similarly, Google will help many an enterprises rethink processes with machine learning.

A whole bunch of customers are themselves reshaping their industry specific operational systems with custom development and specialist startups - they are tired of waiting for modernized vertical packaged software.

Major economies like China, Japan, Brazil and others have seen so far only modest traction with modern enterprise applications. I have a feeling regional players will have a bigger role in the next few years.  

Josh has a lot of ink about activist investors. To me, they play a vital role in shaking up status quo, but smart as they are, I dont see them as significantly reshaping technology markets. In later, more mature markets, private equity investors have more influence in consolidations and other seismic changes. But we are not at the stage in the current iteration of enterprise software.

Net-net to me : SAP and Microsoft will continue to do well in traditional transactional areas. But the definition of the "enterprise" continues to rapidly expand, and I see a very fragmented market for the next few years.     

Of course, Josh may well be right. My little bet is my ticket to what will be a wild ride. Cannot wait for the 2020s!

A vertical that is growing...well, like a weed

I have been imploring software vendors to globalize and verticalize their applications for a while now - after two decades of cloud apps, less than 20% of the grid of applications across countries and operational processes is filled. I have been increasingly writing about fintech, shop floor, healthcare and other industry functionality. But I wasn't sure when Tom Brennan, CMO of the Salesforce platform-based ERP vendor, Rootstock wanted to discuss what he calls the "Cannabusiness" vertical. I have known Tom for over three decades going back to Coda and more recently, Financial Force. He is a straight shooter, but all kinds of word associations crossed my mind as I thought about roots and weeds.

As background, cannabis legalization has been spreading across North America – 10 states plus Washington, D.C., have legalized recreational marijuana over the last few years, and full legalization came to Canada in October 2018. That made Canada the first G7 nation to do so.  Tom adds "Then you have the hemp side of the market – such as CBD (cannabidiol) oils, which claim to have many health benefits." In many other parts of the world, irrespective of the legal status, enforcement of cannabis and hemp is increasingly lax. While this inconsistency causes nightmares for HR groups in terms of employee drug testing and compliance and for law enforcement, the industry itself is growing rapidly.

According to Rootstock "In just the past three years, industry employment has grown 110%. That’s faster than the ten-year projections for the trendy sectors of solar, wind power, and health care. And it’s why the industry was estimated at $10.4 billion in 2018, accounting for more than 250,000 jobs, and is slated to grow to $21 billion by 2021."

The challenge for the industry is less about selling, much more about quality and consistency. While there are clear exceptions like their professionally run customer, Aphria described later, for many companies in the vertical, the need is one of differentiation earned through reliability.

Tom says "many companies that have entered this market must consider state-by-state regulations. A lot of them implemented entry-level systems or used spreadsheets to manage orders and inventory. But with a booming market, they’re now facing significant challenges around operations, inventory management, compliance, and keeping up to date with changing regulations. Many found themselves in a tough spot."

Rootstock partners with another AppExchange vendor, ComplianceQuest. I had a chance to catch up with Prashanth Rajendran, CEO and Shalini Chowdhary, VP of Marketing and Strategic Alliances.  They have long offered quality, inspection, compliance and risk management to industries like life sciences, cpg, and aerospace. They recently raised a $36 Million Series A round led by Insight Partners. 

The combination with Rootstock offers "seed to sale to service" to the Cannabis industry as the schematic below shows (click on image to enlarge)

According to Tom, the flow is "companies take seeds and cultivate them. And then they have to perform testing and QA to measure potency and ensure consistency in their product. They want to process orders efficiently and compete on both the service and quality fronts."

"On the CBD and recreational fronts, after they’ve packaged their products, they’re fulfilling orders to retailers or selling it through their own store fronts or websites. And all cannabis companies – both recreational and medicinal – have to be able to track incidents, in which customers may have had an adverse reaction. This is a huge challenge, and lot and traceability features can help."

Recent scrutiny of the vaping market is drawing even more interest in quality management and traceability.

"We have track and trace capability where you can drill down from a CRM system. Companies will have the service case. They have the serial number or the lot number and can track it in the ERP system. They can see if it was tested in the ComplianceQuest system. Then figure out, do you need to pull the whole lot? "

Many states are deploying tools like Metrc to track and trace cannabis inventories and products to origin when there are health issues. Besides the compliance issues, there is the inventory shrinkage issue. As Tom says "Companies have cannabis products flying out of their warehouses at a fast pace. When issues arise, they need to be able to track back to where those products came from, from which suppliers and what type of testing was done."

Tom describes some of the customers in this vertical. "NuLeaf is based in Colorado. The company makes CBD oils from hemp. KIVA Connections makes gummies and chocolate bars with THC (tetrahydrocannabinol). Michigan Pure Med is going after the medicinal space and they consider themselves a pharma company"

But their most prominent customer is Aphria which is listed on both the Toronto and New York Stock Exchange, and is one of the largest cannabis companies in the world. In Canada, cannabis is legal for both recreational and medicinal purposes.

Aphria hopes to benefit in a number of ways from the Rootstock/ComplianceQuest functionality and the Salesforce platform including:

• Competitive advantage over other cannabis producers. This gives Aphria an advantage in time-to-market, license approvals and external audit readiness.
• Fast and flexible compliance in a quickly changing, regulated Industry.
• Demonstrable compliance with Health Canada and GMP/GxP Regulations.

Aphria is bringing a professional image to the industry and as the video below shows their "manufacturing" process is increasingly automated. The more this industry matures, the more it should also help the vendors position for other process industry and other regulated verticals.   

Constellation Research event: Expansive, respectful vibe

Let's face it - industry events are increasingly formulaic. Most vendor conferences are predictable - keynotes and product futures, rock bands, large partner booths. Most research firm events tend to be siloed around their category definitions and what currently excites them. So, I particularly enjoy events like Cognizant Community which are about conversations with peers, mind expansion, and not so much about bragging or selling.  

I had a chance to spend a day at Ray Wang's Constellation Connected Enterprise event this week. The event honored a wide number of innovative customer executives, definitely different from other events where vendor executives dominate. It is different from the Cognizant vibe - the content here was much more dense and rapid fire. But I liked the panel and fireside chat formats. Way too many events have one talking head after another. I find in my own presentations, the conversational style with a moderator improves audience engagement. Of course, in the 30 minute CCE session format, there is not much time for audience questions. Instead you get to ask questions one on one. In fact, many attendees were outside networking. Ray had opened the event with - 'you are all here because you are intelligent, innovative...and impatient'. I was clearly a rookie - most attendees had been to 3 or more of the 9 annual CCE events. They get their value from the networking outside the sessions. Impatience personified:)

The wide breadth of sessions was refreshing, if covered a bit shallowly. CCE had sessions on sports, economics, fintech and much more. People know me as a SAP or an outsourcing analyst, but the reality also is my New Florence blog has racked up close to 7,000 posts over the last 15 years and books like the New Polymath have focused on the exponential payback from combining cleantech, healthtech, agritech and more. I enjoy diversity in topics.

I could have participated in the event remotely. Every session was streamed like this chat with Aneel Bhusri of Workday. Every session had a visual story from Heather Willem artists like the one above and below. Given Ray's own prolific Twitter habits, the audience provided instant feedback in tweets on every session. However, I am glad I was there in person and here is what I observed in the few hours I was on-site

Honoring the Past

Ray had his parents in the audience. That was very respectful as was his fireside chat with Vint Cerf. It was good to see on-stage executives from MicroStrategy, Tibco, Infosys. These companies are not dead by any means - they are reinventing themselves. It was good to see Jim Cavalieri of Salesforce and Aneel Bhusri of Workday in different sessions look back and honor Marc Benioff. In many ways, it was nostalgic and feel-good. As an industry, we don't do enough of that.

Savoring the Present

To me it is puzzling that so many people are miserable and angry when the economy is so vibrant. I like meeting content people so it was nice to spend a few minutes with Ray's wife, Tina who balances so much with a smile. Ditto with Ray's associates like Dion, Holger and Nicole who are always positive. I only had one meal at the event but have to point out several people at my lunch table went back for the to-die-for crab bisque. The administrative and event staff did an excellent job with logistics.  Dr. Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics had an informative and humorous session on the world economy and assured the audience the US economy is healthy short-term given its energy and manufacturing balance, but cautioned about longer term impact of national debts and aging demographics.

Inviting the Future

It was nice to see Ray's son, Nathan and his school mates at a table - a good metaphor for what's coming next. There were sessions on spatial computing, blockchain, quantum computing, global opportunities. In my conversations I heard of next-gen applications - very little mention of today's vendors, much more of start-ups, custom development, platforms from Google, Amazon and Microsoft. 

Some quotes out of hundreds I heard give you a clue to the future world that was discussed - not all positive, but should give you a flavor for the variety of conversations

• The notion of pure anonymity on the internet may evaporate
• We need to get beyond Next Best Action to Next Best Conversation. If you don’t understand me, how can you support me?
• Teach your kids French. Africa will play a big role in the future and French is a common denominator on that continent.
• 3D designs that look crappy look REALLY crappy in VR
• Digital strategy should run parallel to corporate strategy - Under Armour needs have evolved from apparel footwear industry features to that of a fitness platform
• We are significantly increasing our attack (vulnerability) surface as we head into 5G and with massive amounts of IoT.
• Tracking your lettuce from farm to store doesn’t implicitly add security or prevent it from spoiling. It made zero sense to me when I first heard that use case and it still makes zero sense today.
• “Our equipment works equally well on the earth or the moon for intelligent data processing. We will have mining operations on the moon in about 15 years.“

If you were looking for a string to pull all the pearls together, sure Ray has it. I was only there for a third of the event so have no right to expect that. His loyal fans who show up every year will likely say - who cares? It is a good forum to enjoy Ray's hospitality, get some pretzel logic, energize body and soul and to renew long-term friendships. Mission accomplished. Glad I could be part of it.