This time of the year my family is into movies. But the teenagers, ours and the visiting ones, and the grown-ups have really outdone themselves this time around. Slumdog movies, movies about dogs, dogs of movies - one of us has seen them. Pitt, Streep, Cruise, Reeves, Carrey, DVDs as Christmas gifts, AMC coupons - all have dominated the last few weeks.
In a few weeks, members of the Motion Pictures Academy will probably whisper 2008 was not really a great vintage, but the reality is there was lots to see. That to me summarizes 2008 in a number of ways. The Big Picture captures it well in pictures.
Many in tech will look back at 2008 with much loathing as they lost their jobs, their funding or the value of their options. and 401-K. Understandable - I still get nightmares from my startup in 2001 and 2002.
But take sports - a standout year with more exciting than usual Olympics, Wimbledon, Super Bowl, and US Open (with a limping Tiger Woods)
Take politics - there is a certain zeitgist of change (way beyond Obama slogans), a certain impatience with politicians across the world. Even manifested after the Mumbai attacks - much at the anger was directed at the local politicians for being so ill-prepared.
And even take technology - 2008 will be remembered as the year cloud computing was validated. The year in which SaaS moved mainstream. And likely the end of a cushy run for telcos in terms of FCC and Congressional oversight.
Also, I found at least one technology innovation a day to profile on the New Florence blog.
So, in balance 2008 was nothing, if not eventful.
One for the ages. Definitely a "curious case".
2009: The Year of the Ox
If 2008 will be remembered for anything it will be about whiplash movements in the economy. The raging bull wildly moving up and down. Highs and lows in so many commodities. So many fortunes made and lost.
2009 - the Chinese Year of the Ox, the castrated bull if you will, should be an appropriate antidote. The year of the rational consumer who takes advantage of price points not seen in a while. The rational consumer who justifies purchases within the constraints of their credit crunch.
What does that mean for technology vendors? The rational consumer will lead you out of the recession. But you are in deep trouble if you expect the rational consumer to keep sustaining your 90% gross margins in software. 50% gross margins in services. $ 3 a minute in phone calls. $ 3 a gb a month in storage. If you continue to pay more attention to Wall Street than to the rational customer.
The ox lazing in green meadows with a gentle breeze blowing in the background. No sudden, raging movements. That's my visual for 2009.
Happy New Year!
December 31, 2008 in Industry Commentary | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)