2009: The Year of the Ox

If 2008 will be remembered for anything it will be about whiplash movements in the economy. The raging bull wildly moving up and down. Highs and lows in so many commodities. So many fortunes made and lost.

2009 - the Chinese Year of the Ox, the castrated bull if you will, should be an appropriate antidote. The year of the rational consumer who takes advantage of price points not seen in a while. The rational consumer who justifies purchases within the constraints of their credit crunch.

What does that mean for technology vendors? The rational consumer will lead you out of the recession. But you are in deep trouble if you expect the rational consumer to keep sustaining your 90% gross margins in software. 50% gross margins in services. $ 3 a minute in phone calls. $ 3 a gb a month in storage. If you continue to pay more attention to Wall Street than to the rational customer.

The ox lazing in green meadows with a gentle breeze blowing in the background. No sudden, raging movements. That's my visual for 2009.

Happy New Year!