About the time Jeff Nolan was publishing his post last week on "incrementalism", a client was asking me "so, what's new in technology?" and I led him from A for Apple iPhone to Z for Zoho.
Jeff wrote: "The Valley (where he lives) thrives on the new new thing (possibly one of the most poignantly titled books ever) and with every turn of a generation there is an awkward moment where we’re just figuring out where we’ve been but have yet to see where we are going… right now is that moment."
Away from the Valley, I see 3 different views of "where we are going"
a) Enterprise adoption of all the recent innovation
For a while now I have been concerned about the innovation "glut" - too many technologies chasing for too few innovation dollars. While I think bigger vendors spend too much on sales and marketing, most younger companies just want to keep rolling out cool stuff, not pushing for their adoption in the enterprise. As Jeff himself is helping the company he is now with - Newsgator. Selling enterprises on the new world of RSS. What this also means is a more aggressive positioning against incumbent vendors. As I have said many times, there is no magic "innovation" IT budget. You have to show the CIO and business executives ways to chisel existing spend to justify budgets for your cool stuff.
b) "Multi-channel Mashups"
I find most technology companies very siloed.The really big ahas in recent times have come when two or three categories of technologies and trends have been mashed up to create a whole new value proposition. SaaS mashed software functionality and application hosting and maintenance services. Telepresence is taking advantage of advances in high-definition displays and high speed, highly reliable bandwidth across major global regions. Listen to Steve Jobs and he talks about his competitive advantage comes from owing both the software stack and the hardware. Go see the 40+ categories of technologies I track on the New Florence blog. The next big wave of innovations will come from mashing products from 2-3-4 of those hardware, software, telecom and service categories.
c) Innovation in other global nodes
As I wrote recently, the Valley is First among equals. If it slows down in innovation, there are plenty of other places around the world which will pick up slack. Valley entrepreneurs and VCs can and should contribute elsewhere. They have become more global since the last slowdown but I still see too much Californication.
So, I have a broader view of "where we are going" and am actually pretty excited about "what's next"
Need a GPS to navigate this social map
Loic LeMeur, definitely one of the pioneers in the social networking space shares his social map
And comments:
"The challenge for Friendfeed and the like is that while I really like all my services gathered in one place, I would rather that these would be centralized on my blog instead of a third party service. Yes you can cross post or add badges, but it's not really like a center feed in your blog. What I like about my blog is that it is my space, I own it, I can customize it and change it, I do not depend on anybody (except the software and host, TypePad of course, needless to say)."
Amen.
In the meantime, if you are looking for a GPS to navigate the map of countless social services and tools, the EU may be taking a hard look at the Nokia-Navteq deal. For a while now, I have been concerned the EU has been tough on Microsoft, Qualcomm and other US players while winking at Nokia, SAP and European vendors.
March 31, 2008 in Industry Commentary | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)