The Web 2.0 Confusion Cycle

Last couple of weeks, I have been scratching my head about where we are in the Web 2.0 Hype Cycle - so many conflicting signals. So many market definitions.

Are we in the:

Technology Trigger? Google introduces IMAP. Yahoo! wants to get back to its technology roots. Back to the future of Web 1.0 and offline computing.

Peak of Inflated Expectations? Facebook is valued at over $ 15 billion. I expect Carl Icahn to join the BEA board and ask Oracle to offer a similar valuation.

Trough of Disillusionment? Jeffrey Walker summarizes the payback from Web 2.0 summit

Slope of Enlightenment? Gartner issues a MQ on "Team Collaboration and Social Software". No Facebook anywhere on its social landscape. But BEA is on it. Ammunition for negotiation with Oracle.

Plateau of Productivity? Ross Mayfield celebrates 5 years of blogging and has his company, SocialText included in above Gartner MQ. Talk about productivity doing both and managing a young family and a Second Life! In contrast, there's news that only a very small percentage of folks actively blog. They are being productive in their lives not wasting time writing blogs -)

Carl Icahn recently called BEA "midware" in an interview. His analysts are probably also keeping close tabs on the  "2.0ware" market segment. Love to know where they think it is in the hype curve...