Forrester says
"The magnitude of growth and structural change (in the enterprise software industry) will be determined by clashes between the four horsemen of software commoditization — service-oriented architecture (SOA), open source, software-as-a-service (SaaS), and offshore development — and the four fortresses of market inertia — vendor concentration, intellectual property rights, installed bases, and brand loyalty."
Erik Keller, my former Gartner colleague says Forrester should "tell us something we don't know" - calls it "boring"
He is right - you have been reading about open source, SaaS, overpricing in software etc on this blog and others for a while now - for free!