Jeff Nolan of SAP and I have a wager related to my prediction that the SOX gravy train will slow down in 2006 for software vendors and auditors.
My position is:
The Enron affair is now 4 years old – a long time in US politics. Global competitiveness is becoming more of an issue. If Gartner is right 15% of IT budgets are going towards SOX compliance, and of course more towards HIPAA, FDA validation etc. This is a tax a number of our Asian competitors do not have to pay. You think this will not be played out in the November elections?
His position is:
Ken Lay (of Enron) will be going on trial in 2006. Voters don't understand or care about 15% of IT budgets going to compliance, and no sane politician is going to be talking up loosening corporate governance in an election year. We (SAP) spend alot of time on the Hill and this just isn't an issue for any of the politicans we deal with. I am so confident on this one I'm willing to put up a gentlemen's wager, a fine bottle of wine this time next year when no revision to SarbOx is passed and signed into law.
To my US readers - help me win the bottle and I will share thimblefuls around. But, seriously, write in to Congress (see addresses here) because the country has gone compliance crazy. It is a major "plaque" which is burdening our business processes and needs "angioplasty".
