"I believe that it is only a matter of time before enterprise software
consists of only four types of application: publishing, search,
fulfilment and conversation."
" How we can prevent the unintended
consequences of walled-garden approaches to content. How we can avoid
DRM holding up innovation. Why identity and presence and authentication
and permissioning are important. Why emergence theories and
“democratized innovation” matter. How we can take advantage of the
opportunities that mobile devices offer us."
Refreshing to see a taxonomy at much higher level abstraction than current noise around Web 2.0, SOA, SaaS ...
To banks, information is lifeblood and they spend upwards of 10% of revenues on IT. In other sectors, the CIO is lucky to have 1 or 2%. So, he gets to "play" and innovate a lot more. Hopefully, other CIOs will get jealous and find the innovation money by squeezing their utility spend.
In addition to the usual barrage of cold calls, emails, snail mail, golf invitations - he has bravely opened himself to another channel of selling - or at least attempts at selling. I am already scheming!
Lots of people and the audience talking across each other. But since people are involved probably leads to conversation and collaboration technologies - let's see that will affect employees, customers, vendors, partners...
My post this morning Addicted to Blogs is already the single most read post I have ever had. That too on a Sunday (ok, Super Bowl last Sunday would have been tough to compete against)
It took me 15 minutes to write. Others have taken days to think about, write, rewrite - and may be 20 folks read them. As Forrest Gump said "...like a box of chocolates. You never know what you are going to get". One reader called my post an "incredible mashup". In the web 2.0 world that is the equivalent of knighthood!
3 bloggers I want to thank for inspiring my "addicted" post yesterday
Charles Zedlewski invokes Spinal Tap as he responds to my blog about memeorandum. He says he does not care if he is way at the distant end of the long tail of blog exposure. He has strong opinions on a number of enterprise technology topics - I believe he deserves to be heard by a broader group of folks. Today, we seem to find blogs almost by accident. Various sites have blogrolls - some have 50+ and we refer to each other in our posts. But the neat thing about memeorandum is the topical linkage, by relevance etc. If they
do not care enough about enterprise topics we all need to encourage other comparable sites to
I would instead like to suggest a different genre from Charles'- Joan Baez - No man is an island, even if he is at the outer extremes of the blog galaxy.
The one thing I disagree on - he ends with "most New York cab drivers are happily ignorant of what's hot in the Valley, just as they should be". That immigrant group is probably more aware than the average American of what is going on in Bangalore, Dalian and elsewhere in the world. The neat thing about the new boom is it's happening in so many places around the world - as I wrote in Florence above.
Courtesy of Dave Berlind I saw this definition of "mashup artists" using ubiquitous APIs to build new applications on what Dave calls the "uncomputer". I then saw this "Mashup Camp" (already sold out). The creative prospects are unbelievable -and I was marveling at how far we have come from the initial APIs in the enterprise world and the ambitious Open Applications Group attempted in 1995.
But why just stop at APIs? It would be great to see other building blocks - RFIP, GPS, open source, predictive analytics - being similarly being mashed up to create enterprise applications.
Any one care to join me to think about a Monster Mashup camp on the lines above? Say, around Halloween?
the last couple of weeks it has been good to see so many bloggers make their forecasts about 2006. But - most are about Web 2.0 - Google this, Flickr
that. Of course, with Apple and amazon.com enjoying a bumper holiday season, the focus on consumer technologies is only accented.
Much as I love Google, it cannot process BOMs for the average
manufacturing company. Much as my daughter loves her iPod, it will not process
insurance claims. Whoever does whatever with AOL will not improve supply chain
logistics at UPS.
we did in the last Internet Bubble, we risk making the Web and consumer technologies the center of the
technology world. It’s the Gates/Plattner
I wrote about earlier. As I wrote in Florence
during the Renaissance, innovation is happening in a number of other areas
which CIOs are actually much more excited about - especially at amazing new price points. Also as I have said over and over again this year, many elements of enterprise technology spend are grossly overpriced.
here’s my forecast for next year - good and bad - with more of an enterprise focus:
SAP, Oracle and Microsoft (around enterprise software) will have poor years as
pricing pressure intensifies on core products and particularly on maintenance
revenue streams. SAP will de-emphasize its web services talk and go back to focusing
on applications and business payback. Oracle will go the other way and talk
more about architectures as it masks the enormity of rationalizing its various
application acquisitions. CIOs will increasingly question if all they are doing
is subsidizing Microsoft's focus on Google.
We will see version 2.0 definitions of CRM, SCM, HRM etc
emerge which will a) redefine process coverage (e.g. CRM is more than SFA and
call centers) that the market leaders have chosen to define the categories as
and b) utilize appropriate, newer technology building blocks -
GPS, RFID, RSS in the category re-definition process.
CIOs in many non-manufacturing verticals will tire of waiting for robust
software solutions for their major engines (claims processing, trading systems)
and more aggressively look at BPO options to support these processes. These CIOs, especially in financial services verticals, will pioneer attempts to leverage web 2.0 driven discovery and social networking tools with their enterprise applications.
An infrastructure vendor - likely Dell or Sun (as it tries to redefine itself)
- will introduce infrastructure outsourcing at aggressive, "utility"
price points to cover a wide range of network, database, desktop and other
services. In its hype cycle for outsourcing Gartner defines infrastructure
outsourcing as one of the most mature. As systems management automation and
offsite, shared labor models mature, an efficient services "supply
chain" becomes much more viable.
A generation of “appligators” will emerge - small systems integrators which specialize in
innovation areas like web services or telemetry and willing to work with
clients in small, intense teams. We will not be able to tell till 2007 if they are of a more modest breed than their predecessors, the Scients, Viants around
the ebiz boom in late 90s.
Large US and European outsourcers (EDS, Accenture and by extension IBM, HP etc)
will find themselves squeezed between a) private equity firms who want to take
their valuations from 1 or 2X revenues to close to 10X many of the Indian
vendors enjoy and b) CIOs who want price points much closer to what Indian
vendors can quote. This will force these outsourcers to finally get serious
about becoming much more efficient with automation, global delivery models etc. They will find Indian vendors expanding into horizontal process consulting and BPO (finance, HR) beyond their traditional IT competencies.
China will look beyond hardware and start to flex its muscle around software and
services. Chinese firms in these categories will start to raise
significant capital and make small acquisitions in the US and Europe to acquire customer channels.
SaaS models will come under increased scrutiny from buyers about stringent SLAs
and business continuity plans. In 2001, after the India/Pakistan nuclear war
threat, Indian vendors went through a similar spike in scrutiny. After
last week's well publicized outage at salesforce.com, this will become a
required due diligence step in evaluating SaaS options. The scrutiny helped Indian vendors mature - it will similarly increase corporate confidence in SaaS.
CIOs will do serious "spend management" around storage (due to proliferation of volume
demand) and telecommunications (due to proliferation of mobile, broadband and
other products) investments.
CEOs will start lobbying Congress to back off on the compliance burden and
pressure their CFOs to significantly streamline and justify compliance spend. The SOX gravy
train for software vendors and auditors will slow down.
plus 6 quarters may buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks! A version customized by Zodiac signs is planned soon...
Author Note: Sandhill.com carries a slightly modified and expanded version of my 2006 Enterprise IT projections here.
Phil Wainewright at ZD Net has been talking quite a bit about Web 3.0 - his term for the convergence between enterprise apps and Web 2.0 concepts - here, here, here and here.
He is to be complimented about taking to a more formalized level what I had mentioned about corporate CIOs adopting "business casual" user experiences and generally getting more hip about emerging social networking and collaboration technologies.
John Hagel has a nice commentary on Phil's columns here
I have three nits:
a) Most CIOs have to look at innovation beyond what is being classified under Web 2.0. As I wrote in Florence during the Renaissance they can evaluate sensor telemetry, more sophisticated analytics, open source etc. His term Web 3.0 may be too narrow a focus.
b) He quotes the CIO of Dresdner, JP Rangaswami in one of his posts. Technology is considered lifeblood so many banks spend 10% of revenues when the
average manufacturing CIO is lucky to justify 2%. Also, Banking is pretty heavily custom built
applications, so you do not have to wait for SAP or Oracle - backbone applications in
many other verticals - for years before they
release new innovation. Phil's suggestions may be years ahead of reality for them.
c) Finally, "enterprise 1.0" - today's incumbent, utility spendeats up too much of IT spend. We need to crunch that spend before we can find funds for many 2.0 or 3.0 initiatives. Every time the large vendors deliver "innovation" they price it at a layer above the base, previous layer.
Nice framework, Phil...we need to get CIOs the money to do what you suggest and other innovations around RFID, GPS, and so much more...
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject" - Churchill
I met Mary Meeker a couple of times in the late 90 at Morgan Stanley conferences. Given my enterprise focus, I was much more aligned
with her colleague, Charles Phillips. But I remember her
passion - and the mind boggling amount of data she was able to collect
and package. No industry (or financial) analyst even came close to what
She was the cheerleader for AOL, ebay, amazon and other Internet stocks, and through the dark days when the bubble broke, continued to be a fan. Charles left for Oracle and many of her contemporaries have been driven out of the business. Her fellow analysts continue to be wary of her - see here and here. But as she says in this interview many of her Web stocks have bounced back spectacularly.
As this presentation at Stanford a few weeks ago shows she is now positioned to be the cheerleader for Web 2.0 - and backs it up with lots of interesting data.
People will say she lost investors billions. I happen to believe the job of the analyst - financial or industry - is to present data, and let readers make their own mind. From that perspective I am glad she continues to be fanatical about collecting and presenting data. What you do with that is your responsibility - tempting as it may be to credit or blame her for the results.