Why the traditional software company is toast

Read this Google paper Data Center as Computer to understand why the average software company which cannot talk about PUEs and CRACs is going to be hopelessly outflanked by the amazon’s and salesforce’s.

Read this note by Dennis Howlett on why “not our problem” will be less and less acceptable as an excuse for a software vendor. Operations Management will become as important a competency as architecture, interface design and testing.

Either software vendors will pick up those competencies really quick, or they will leverage the infrastructure and operations experience of one of the pioneers – as Coda is doing with salesforce.

Traditional outsourcers like IBM and CSC could provide both data center and ops assistance to software vendors, but frankly, they have their own catching up to do to be able to deliver the data center efficiencies Google, amazon, Yahoo and Microsoft are demonstrating. And when it comes to ops, their traditional services mindset of throwing labor at problems would likely mess up any software vendor clients even more.

Tough to retire in this economy

Frank Scavo

“Back in 2007, I noted that Gartner had retired its mid-market ERP Magic Quadrant (MQ). As my source said at the time, the reason was that as a result of consolidation there were not enough vendors left in midmarket ERP to populate the quadrant.

Well, apparently Gartner found some more vendors and has now brought the mid-market ERP MQ back from retirement.”

He raises some very valid questions on the findings.

My two questions about the MQ

  • Where are SaaS vendors like NetSuite and Intacct? Indeed Gartner in its intro says “Although some see this market as large and mature, Gartner sees this market as undergoing a "changing of the guard," with older, established systems with deep functionality being displaced by more modern and agile systems.” Modern and agile = SaaS, does it not? And for the lower end of this market increasingly the easiest choice.
  • Also, in Europe I can see a case for Axapta as the only product in the leader quadrant, but on a global basis?

I can hazard a guess.

The document title is already a mouthful “The Magic Quadrant for Midmarket and Tier 2-Oriented ERP for Product-Centric Companies”

So the editors cut out “Old Technology” and “Old World” from the title…

L-aw-shucks-on Software

Lawson invited a handful of bloggers to their CUE conference. First time they have invited bloggers and they did a nice job and allowed us access to their execs, customers and partners. It was especially thoughtful they did not participate in the customer sessions. Sign of confidence when you let a blogger unfiltered access to your customers.

And the customer feedback was refreshingly positive. In a world where value of enterprise software is increasingly questionable and customers are looking at re-negotiations, SaaS, third party maintenance, open source - anything to reduce their software burden, the Lawson customers I talked to seemed reasonably content. Lawson is showing tangible reduction in time to response and other customer service metrics, and they are offering a premium plan at an additional 2% to allow for more personalized service.

But I walked away with the same question as I do every time I have met with Lawson since I started dealing with them at PwC in early 90s and then at Gartner - what holds them from breaking out? Why do they not aggressively showcase their differences from two application leaders growing in customer unpopularity?

And the answer is functionally in many areas Lawson is not that different. They are in some Intentia focused verticals like Fashion, but in most others they are not substantially so. And they are mired in the same mentality as the leaders: margin at any cost (the lame excuse from one of their executives was "the best thing we can do for our customers is stay healthy". Compared to their fashion and local government customers who survive on much thinner margins/tighter budgets, Lawson looks too healthy - pudgy, in fact). Which means roughly only 5% goes towards new product R&D (more in tweaks and re-platform). Spread that around a growing vertical pallet (Lawson announced a move to organize on vertical lines) and you end up features like Smart Office 3 years after SAP introduced Duet (which I had already called late since it should have come out a decade earlier along with a much earlier version of Excel)

So you have focus verticals like healthcare where the foot print is primarily in administrative areas, when the dollars accelerated by some recent stimulus programs are going into clinical areas where Lawson does not play. As one healthcare customer told us - "I wish maintenance was lower, but even better I would love to see them use my dollars to make acquisitions to expand their foot print". Yes, use that pile of $ 300 million in cash to do so. And by the way, there is no rule book which says you cannot invest 10, 15, 20% of every revenue dollar in new R&D. Get away from the margin at any cost disease which has taken over the leaders.

The other area they behave like the other legacy vendors is their seeming indifference to aggressively managing customer TCO. They talk about the foundation leveraging IBM Websphere when they should be aggressively moving to a much cheaper (to customers) open source platform. When I asked them whether they had looked at integration with Google Apps or Zoho as part of the Office integration the response was "but we are trying to leverage our customer's investment in MS Office". Investment or Microsoft's lock-in? Same thing with hosting and other services around their products.

In that sense, Lawson is exposed compared to the next generation of SaaS vendors or even legacy vendors who start leveraging cloud computing platforms - and whose TCO will make Lawson's look just as bloated as Oracle's or SAP's.

Likable vendor, content customers, good enough technology. Still the "aw-shucks" vendor after all these years...

Update: Posts from other bloggers who were at CUE - Frank Scavo and Mike Krigsman

Lawson CUE: First impressions

I am in San Diego at Lawson's user conference. This is the first time they have invited bloggers (Michael Krigsman, Frank Scavo and I in person - others like Dennis Howlett virtually). I will have impressions on content over next couple of days, but the logistics, customer and executive access have been very well organized.

No big name bands or entertainers at this conference, but both CEO Harry Debes and SVP Dean Hager have filled in well with props from Hollywood. Harry played game show host and Dean simulated Extreme Makeover of his spartan fish house in deep freeze Minnesota as he presented. While they evoked slum-dog themes, the hospitality at the new Hilton next to the conference center has been anything but. Combined with the usual mid-western friendliness in their executives.

In return us bloggers have been well behaved. No moves yet to get the CEO to yell out 4 letter words.

Not yet anyways:)

Oh, and BTW - I have already recruited 6 more folks here to write in the Technology and my Hobby series. Not bad for a day's work!

salesforce.com : The second billion

In part the Force.com tour is a celebration for salesforce. 10th birthday, $ 1 billion in revenue. It has been quite a ride.

As I spent the day yesterday talking to analysts and partners and customers at the event in NYC yesterday, it hit me the next billion would be a lot different in at least 4 ways

a) The pressure to go up-market.

Every chance he gets, CEO Marc Benioff emphasizes his customers have always been a third really small businesses, a third mid-size and a third large customers. It is clear in the salesperson recruiting and customer targeting that the company wants that mix to skew to the third category. If there is a chink in the salesforce armor, it is that 2/3rd of its revenues go towards SG&A. The conventional wisdom is larger customers should help reduce that. The risk of course, it means hiring the "elephant hunters" from Oracle and IBM and SAP. Watch for the related corrupting influences.

b) The pressure to cozy up to bigger SIs

In line with the above point, again the conventional wisdom is salesforce needs the IBMs and the Accentures as it sells higher. I have written before one of the nice "features" of salesforce is its ecosystem of new age SIs like appirio, Blue Wolf and Model Metrics. But could they handle global 20,000 user implementations? Enter the bigger SIs. To me, again another potential corruption influence to what has worked well over the first billion.

c) The pressure to expand the functional footprint

Compare the salesforce application growth to the iPhone apps store - close to 20,000 new applications in less than 12 months. Unfair as that comparison may be, that is the "new normal". There was quite a bit of emphasis yesterday on the Service Cloud which is finally rolling out with functionality acquired via Intstranet as the core piece. Then there is continued focus on ISVs like Coda leveraging salesforce's platform to fill out the functional footprint.  The reality: unless the pace of delivery of internal or partner solutions increases dramatically, salesforce will become a development tool more than an application company over the course of the next billion in revenue.

d) The pressure to "sell"

One of the most frustrating things I find at salesforce events is constant rumors about who is going to "buy them". As salesforce gets bigger each year, the list of potential acquirers gets smaller and the pressure to sell grows. I find it the equivalent of child porn - I am repulsed at the thought of what one of the larger vendors mentioned as a buyer would do to this 10 year old. But that idle conversation continues.

It will take Marc and his team even more discipline to stay the course and continue to believe they have created something special - and so different. They earned the first billion by being different. They need to remember  that and not become too "mainstream" as they plan their next billion.

Brother Love's Traveling Salvation Show

I am in New York at the local whistle stop in salesforce's Cloud Force tour. And I read in the New York Times this morning, CEO Marc Benioff is called the "Billy Graham of Cloud Computing". 

And I started humming Neil Diamond.

Pack up the babies and grab the old ladies...

Marc is in fine form. He feeds off the supposed 1,400 people - most customers or prospects - in the audience. He has a new presentation titled the "real-time cloud".

And when he lets go, half the valley shakes...

Marc has a choir of executives and partners parading up and down the stage. Not just booming voices, plenty of Tweets too.

Take my hand in yours, walk with me this day...

As Marc tells the NY Times "Every time someone buys a server, a switch or a data center, I have failed"

In my heart I know, I will never stray...

What Wall Street is missing about SaaS

I was reading Bob Evans’ piece on salesforce.com and Marc Benioff and came across an analysis by Sunil Shah which can be summarized as “the customer traction depicts a markedly more somber picture, with a growth rate currently of 16%”

The ethos in SaaS for the most part has been “we re-earn our business every year”. While this recession will bring some cancellations, the secular trend is towards higher renewals (compared to on-premise maintenance, hosting and support it is typically a non-brainer) and multi-year deals. SaaS will likely become like outsourcing contracts – 3,5, 7 year deals.

But because today signed deals probably average 1.5 years, Wall Street does (and should ) not assign a value to that “likely” deferred revenue beyond that.

Of course, that understates the momentum SaaS has in the market. SaaS will become even more compelling as vendors allow customers more expansion/contraction options over the term of the contract.

One of the selling points for SaaS is the promise of turning fixed costs into variable. Buyers have a bitter taste about “shelfware” and continued annual maintenance from on-premise vendors. They do not want SaaS to turn into a similar, fixed cost.

The incredibly fragmenting enterprise application software market

Ray Wang of Forrester delivers a blow to the myth that the enterprise application software market is consolidated. He develops an Software Insider Index of 30 software vendors, and SAP and Oracle do not even make up 50% of the total revenues. BTW - Ray's cutoff is revenues of $ 100 million, and there are plenty of software vendors under that threshold

Now let me add several vertical and business process specialists Ray does not have on his list - this is just a sample of industries and business processes and related software vendors. I also used the $ 100 million revenue cut off and there are plenty more under that.

  • Banking, Financial Services - SunGard, FiServ, MiSys, Fidessa
  • Healthcare - McKesson, Cerner, Eclypsis, iSOFT
  • Engineering/Design - AutoDesk, PTC, InterGraph, Cadence
  • Analytics - SAS, SPSS, Fair Isaac
  • HR - Kronos, Kenexa, Saba

Now throw is a whole slew of SaaS vendors (Ray has 6 in his list of 30) and you can see from Jeff Kaplan's SaaS showplace how that market is mushrooming.

As I wrote last week, it's time to refocus our procurement folks away from the trend of vendor consolidation (and related lock-in) and have them rediscover the art of sourcing.

Reseller Spring Training

Spring baseball starts in Florida today...sure as each team will boast new names traded during the off-season, we are seeing musical chairs in the SME software reseller channel.

A few weeks ago, the folks at Intacct were telling me about their channel growth. Yesterday I was talking to a friend who has been consolidating Microsoft Dynamics resellers.

Then I read this article by Robert Scott who has been covering the SME accounting software market for donkey's years and I see moves being made by NetSuite, Deltek, Intuit, Epicor, SAP.

While players like Microsoft and Sage have been consolidating the software side of the market, the reseller segment remains very fragmented - and fluid as newer SaaS players join more established players in trading for the best resellers.

Open Source Enterprise Apps

For a few years now I have held this somewhat simple view of the world – Open Source ok for infrastructure software (Linux, Apache, MySQL), but SaaS is the better replacement path for enterprise applications. Sure you hear of open source products like Compiere with some traction and Dennis Howlett periodically reports on Severn Delta’s implementation,  but it has had nowhere never the impact on applications as it has on infrastructure.

Tom Wailgum at CIO Magazine quotes Cutter Consortium Senior Consultant Vince Kellen “open source will get a second chance to get a toe in the door in the coming year.”

I hope he is right, but for now I am sticking to my simple view of the world


Google

  • Google
    Google

    WWW
    dealarchitect.typepad.com

ads