In January, I wrote "why it will be very different this time"
I wrote "As an older vendor of technology, if you expect to continue with what has worked in the last few years, you are in a very vulnerable category. The cross-currents are too strong for you, big as you might be, to just ride it out. Transform your revenue and marketing mix in a big way."
No, I had no clue we would have a meltdown like we have had. I figured we would have a middling recession. What I was pointing to was a more fundamental, secular shift in technology markets.
So SAP reports a worse-than-expected Q3 and as Dennis Howlett reports "blamed the result on a ’sudden,’ ‘unusual’ and ‘unexpected’ drop in deal closure rates."
Even if the economy had not turned sour so quickly, they had made things tough for themselves - by trying to push an unpopular maintenance rate hike, and having lost momentum (some would argue they only made a half-hearted attempt to get there) on their BBD/SaaS offering.
But, as SAP makes adjustments, I suspect they will "continue with what has worked in the last few years" when in fact I hope they realize they are caught in a secular industry shift. The economy only makes the cross-currents much more violent.
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