What is Gartner probability of a coin flip?

ARmadgeddon points out Gartner's suggestion of a coin flip as a vendor selection tool.

So, if there are 6 vendors, that would be a total of 5 coin flips? 3 flips to reduce to 3 vendors, give one a wild card and 2 more to decide the winner. That is a probability of .5 to the power of 5 a vendor would be selected? And does the wild card introduce bias? Would a dice not be easier?

Help me out here, readers. I tried this site but realized the wisdom of my reader crowd was probably a better bet.

Comments

[Stiennon]

I think they got their metaphor wrong. A dart board would be a better tool. Similar to the argument that you can do a better job picking stocks by throwing darts at the WSJ than you can listening to wall street analysts. :-)